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[真人] 德州扑克概率中的一些冷知识
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1、AK vs 对子的最大胜率?
( Y# L  y; J! vAsKs vs 2c2d = 50.1%:49.9%* t8 ~+ A! o$ c7 z% K, L5 T

8 O* `0 c# J8 R9 B" }2、两高张 vs 对子的最大胜率?
/ |8 s7 h3 Z: cJsTs vs 2c2d = 54.0%:46.0%
# U8 Y* ~# S9 D3 g& |6 ~# }——JsTs成花顺比例最高,不被对子block;同时22被“淹没”的概率最高。# q4 G: Q- A: e; t# G8 j5 M

5 Y! T, H( c# R' e2 I& Z3、翻牌圈听牌vs成牌outs最多的情况3 X8 F4 o% n+ c
两高张抽同花顺(两高张花顺双抽),如0 a* \. j, C3 }( I6 K: q( d! c
KsQs vs Jc8c @JsTs2d = 68.9%:31.1%
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3 @) i5 P+ a4 ?& J' a4、转牌圈比牌更大但是河牌除了分池没有胜率的情况
. u& t6 Z3 n+ h6 [  K5s6s vs 2s7s @3c3d4c4d = 63.6%:36.4%
" o6 P4 H/ ]6 B/ I; r+ K! Z& S——这里2567都是 56s的outs,其他无论发什么都双方分池。: H( c- g1 J4 [7 Z
——把条件增到更强会更加好玩,5s6s vs 2d7d @3s3h4s4h = 71.6%:28.4%。
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5、转牌圈 抽牌 vs 成牌outs最多的情况* H7 Y6 n5 o. M. v# k& I, Z
(应该是)花顺双抽公对面vs小对子:. @* f" N& |/ N, t
KsQs vs 2c2d @JsTsJc3d = 56.8%:43.2%
& |5 H5 ~6 v8 L2 U8 u1 n- ]outs有AKQT93,黑桃4-8 = 3+3+4+4+3+3+5=25个outs' G0 K. M- D! x- N

8 ^; d  `/ U" C/ I6、AA vs 67s还是56s胜率最高?4 g1 M$ h: t  v$ B3 Y
答案是56s。
% C3 ^2 b2 ~, ?* K2 g4 ~; lAsAh vs 6c7c = 77.0%:23.0%;
; k- f- o+ G, v, @- P3 @' \AsAh vs 6c5c = 76.9%:23.1%;& S1 X" C+ x# D) @
(用pokerstove模拟170万次,为什么是170万次?因为翻后总组合数是1,712,304个)- ?+ Z$ k9 X5 B/ L9 \8 ~# D7 b1 d: }
为什么56s胜率会高那么一丁点呢?因为AA输的情况,主要56s或67s成花顺、两对、三条,当56s成花顺的时候,AA基本没有redraw,但是56成两对、三条的时候,AA除了A的outs,还有顺子的outs——56s block掉了1/4 A-5的顺。
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" M, o- c4 N( e/ s: W7、AA vs AA 其中一方赢的概率是多少?- S5 \/ O* k1 u# w# J
答:一方获胜概率是2.2%,分池概率是95.7%。; _$ s3 q' D4 Q8 a7 Y. `' V

2 }( Q1 t5 e5 v5 [% K8、你平均打多少手看到河牌的牌,会拿到一手同花顺(含皇家同花顺)?同花顺遇到金刚的概率是多少?
% i$ _1 W) x2 D答:1)拿到同花顺的概率是0.031%,大约3200手牌会拿到一手。4 S/ p- z, O. a8 o2 _; m/ V
按此粗略估算,如果网上9人桌1小时平均60手牌,你大约在满员桌平均6小时会看到一手同花顺。(假设同花顺的手牌强度都能坚持到河牌;另外这里玩家手牌并不是独立事件,但是我们粗略地看成每个玩家拿到同花顺的事件彼此独立)
! O- p5 t3 {1 p5 X* c1 N1 G0 o2 W2)同花顺遇到金刚的概率大约是400万分之一。1 U4 k/ v- [. H2 p
这里详细的计算见下表,其中同花顺的概率是计算无误的;同花顺遇到金刚的概率有点复杂,估计计算没有大的问题,但是不能完全保证计算做到相互独立完全穷尽,欢迎检查指正(我真是闲得蛋疼去算这么一道高中排列组合题目)。7 F5 Y. ~3 a, U  W
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