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认同“学坏”朋友的计算,骰子投注单一数字,获胜率为50%正,DC没有抽水
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本帖最后由 76gor 于 2012-11-21 11:58 编辑
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刚刚认真计算了一次;1 D7 A4 v3 v0 O; c

! Z# m  t/ S( S假设我每次都是平注投注数字 "6" , 获胜率的计算如下:1 `2 O8 m. {% g2 `

+ m2 `9 {2 i. Q# @1 x  O0 |, P( z开3个”6“的几率:(1/6)* (1/6)* (1/6)  =  1/216;. u% Z' j5 ]9 _$ O9 T5 l
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开2个”6“, 因为有三个组合的可能性,所以几率是:(1/6)* (5/6) * (1/6) *3 = 5/725 i+ Z' N  T6 L* i0 V4 y; }5 S* `

/ |! U2 Y" c$ R2 A& d: \3 Q9 B' S6 `9 O开1个”6“,几率是: 1-(5/6 * 5/6 * 5/6) - 5/72 -  1/216 = 25/72
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收益率:(1/216 *3) + ( 5/72*2)+ 25/72 = 0.5$ \8 j+ s5 d( J2 B, g9 z/ c
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所以,平注一直投注,基数无限大时,获胜的几率确实为50%整;
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9 P9 o+ F* F+ q/ q# ]加上反水,假如有耐心,存个几万,聘请一个人,五块五块的压,那么长期下来,你的收入就等于你的反水率;! c: Y8 ]. @/ R
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以上,76gor
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我试试再深入探讨一下,已经确定赢输几率为50%,假如DC不禁止单边投注,没有信誉问题,以波音平台骰子反水0.8%计算;
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假设存款100A, 每次投注50元单数字(20000注本金),以波音骰子30秒一局计算,% {1 B* Z, M0 G5 f
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一天流水为: 50*2*60*24 =¥144,000# g+ l0 _( ], A; E- U: x: q/ i
每天反水为:144000*0.008=¥1,152" @8 E2 e1 u+ v3 }/ D  n

  J" n4 {# M9 ]; S+ M5 q假设聘请3个人,轮班工作,每个人一天工资¥150,加上电费,每天支出为:¥500
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: E# p! J+ g7 }# V每天净收入为:¥652
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年收入为:¥237,980
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3 l5 j$ a" |* v1 g% W1 n( \唯一难度在于,有100A的人不一定愿意这样赚钱;- c- [7 R) c& A+ p* f% }" x/ J
唯二风险在于聘请的人不按章工作,或者DC跑路;
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回复 2# 76gor 1 p5 f: D2 N% n- t5 H2 g
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   这都能想到,真服了你了。。。;P
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感谢76分享阿
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主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
最近流行探讨这个话题?
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哈哈,楼主被误导了,
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最近流行探讨这个话题?
% N* \% B; B! ~' f7 [2 OTerrance 发表于 2012-11-21 12:22

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9 }: t: C' R! f% K    竟然有不抽水的赌戏,还是挺有意思的
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哈哈,楼主被误导了,
# @& s7 x( i5 y- A2 k# Lbeata 发表于 2012-11-21 12:24

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: l+ |& S7 v. s2 s    请指教,我们只聊几率哦
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76哥  那这么说 骰宝还真适合打首存优惠啊?
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楼主分析得好厉害啊
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刚刚认真计算了一次;, U: V- n! H6 m" H* b7 ]/ c4 v( M; G
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假设我每次都是平注投注数字 "6" , 获胜率的计算如下:
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开3个”6“的几率:(1/ ...
5 f. O, Z5 ]/ B+ G) x76gor 发表于 2012-11-21 11:54
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楼主再仔细想想吧百家乐是公认的抽水最低的游戏
' `: i) S. P' l4 Q* g: I3 Z大概是1%多点# ]# a! X6 E( u$ K1 b3 s
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至于你现在说的这个抽水其实是相当高的
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楼主再仔细想想吧百家乐是公认的抽水最低的游戏
( Q$ S6 b9 R" p1 d! ~大概是1%多点
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至于你现在说的这个抽水其实是相当 ...
; H4 E7 K; X* M# U6 o: z: ztaishan 发表于 2012-11-21 12:27
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    请指教
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楼主分析不错哦 学习下
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看起来不错,不过没钱实施
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76哥  那这么说 骰宝还真适合打首存优惠啊?) _! t2 [% r) m6 a# E9 f
粤D 发表于 2012-11-21 12:26
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    自问没有计算错误,确实适合磨流水,唯一风险是振幅和DC不允许
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回复 15# 76gor : p2 M' Z7 \- u

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6 o% y  _& y! t$ S; n   有个风险就是豹子吧!
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回复  76gor 6 |' Y* A+ M" g5 z0 v

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   有个风险就是豹子吧!0 J+ I7 Z4 Y- d9 u
粤D 发表于 2012-11-21 12:30
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) j0 R. z, z8 l" T4 C: c3 _    不是说豹子只杀大小和单双吗?那样的话豹子就不是风险了
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