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1#
21点算牌与当日冲销类似,坐在赌桌等机会,算到好牌下大注。
# S' C8 o0 D( A5 N4 s, V; F算牌时将牌分成小牌(2-6)及大牌(10JQKA),789不重要不算。自第一手自0开始看到小牌加1大牌减1。
8 Z6 C. s1 Q3 C依剩馀副数调整真数供下注及打牌参考。. Z+ G% Z1 R7 Y2 @" ~! a* ]
假设你面对6副牌基本输率0.25%赌桌,算到真1平均赢DC0.25%,应该下多少钱?下几手?每一真1算牌客平均多赢0.5%,真2赢0.75%,真3+1.25%。
2 G$ Y( @& b/ K" O$ F' H/ O真数愈高表示看到小牌多剩下大牌多庄家(必须补到17点)易爆,大牌愈多算牌客应少加牌、多投降、多赌倍、多分牌。
1 [' D: K( \* V2 R1 [: l" v3 a例如基本策略12 versus 庄3加牌,真2以上时不加。打多大打几门依赌本,风险偏好及同桌门数而不同。2 C. g+ e/ e: Q6 h0 V2 m7 C/ @
假设使用50万美元,依半凯利下注……面对1%获利机会下1/2%的赌本,赌本加倍前输光的风险约1.8%(平均98.2%可以成功把赌本加倍)。
1 f- S1 y! a* T3 B6 d( i/ j玩21点时下注后还会分牌及赌倍使下注增加,因此2%收益率不应下1%赌本,而是1%的76%……0.76%。
) |4 \. \( Z4 _: u% Q: \如果只下一门0.76%但下二门风险分散总下注额可以增加46%……下一门0.76%,下二门二门各0.56%合计1.12%,下三门总下注额可以增加71%!下三门各0.43%,合计1.3%。
) x9 C3 w4 ~* }8 c) W# |( z把500,000赌本代入,各种情形之下注额如下:: |: u/ f: E1 L( |5 R( e5 c
下一门 下二门合计 下三门合计5 n7 Y; A% d4 x" t' l4 J, g) E( ]
真1 500 700 800! O! B' L1 p8 N
真2 1400 2100 2400
9 F: T- S. ]& G( I+ ]真3 2400 3500 4100' K/ I; Z  d& q! U
真4 3300 4900 5700! \6 D% c$ F. L3 g
真5 4300 6200 7300; e- o6 u4 C3 `- e! I, q9 j8 z
真6 5200 7600 89004 g: V7 [2 Q+ i$ q4 n$ F, \. j
真7 6200 9000 10,600
- j- X' n& S( G) s7 [# R4 X如果有选择,好牌时应该下几门?$ Q; U" i& j/ {- _* T0 `$ ~
Don Schleisinger在《Blackjack Attack》一书中分析如下:+ G4 ?* P0 h0 d5 d; t
假设你打7位赌桌,单独打,同桌有另一人,另二人,另三人,另四人,你打几门最好?假设顶注500元一人下一门100次约540张牌(平均一轮一位用2.7张牌),下二门只能下67次(540÷8.1)下三门下50次(540÷10.8)则风险相同下(一门下500元风险与二门共下730元及三门共下855元风险相同)下一门总下注额最高:
4 `4 Y+ L* |0 C一人打 下注次数 总下注额$ ~& j+ W( p8 L  `
下一门 100 50,000*$ t* l3 U, z7 j3 w% y" U  t- g; p
下二门 67 48,910
' b  Y$ t+ R* `) C! G下三门 50 42,750
8 Z4 Z! |5 D0 G) _, i! p  N/ B*即风险相同下下一门总下注额最高(获利最高)。! h6 A( b1 F+ j1 n- Z. c& C
若同桌有另一人下一门:) l6 h( K+ l3 `/ t) ?
二人打 下注次数 总下注额: h( N/ U- [3 H
你下一门 67 33,5204 X& d$ b+ G% }" Z/ r1 G& ]7 T
你下二门 50 36,500*
% ]$ l% q2 G' ], J你下三门 40 34,200/ t# ~' \) d1 p
*即下二门总获利最高。
1 X: I. I$ l/ t. T0 z; u若同桌有人下二门:8 g5 k; h' T; [4 b9 I
三人打 下注次数 总下注额
9 f; f* v) E  ]. B6 e你下一门 50 25,000
" G6 o  J% f' @+ ?你下二门 40 29,200*3 l6 \6 V5 M4 ]9 u! t; y2 h0 R: M
你下三门 33 28,215
  t+ ~: X6 V% K( ]; I( w' Q) n*也是下二门总获利最高。! [2 S$ j  k' l7 f
若同桌有人下三门:
8 `9 B/ G; m2 t8 [9 `- O' B四人打 下注次数 总下注额  @* V" C- Z3 E* _6 m# v7 {, ]
你下一门 40 20,000
; ^( C# z3 E5 ]1 K0 d你下二门 33 24,090
% j% k- E( c' F  J你下三门 29 24,795*& ~: H5 \$ S6 [2 T! ]1 @; ?7 a$ C
*下三门好。& ?1 x$ \1 C: i$ B; {7 b
五人打 下注次数 总下注额
7 N( }1 G+ H2 }) _  ^, F) t0 ~你下一门 33 16,520
$ w& P, y9 P4 M3 F  i你下二门 29 21,170" {4 ]9 I9 T# m  Z- z+ X
你下三门 25 21,375*- _% w% U0 \% _- c5 B2 W" M
*下三门好。
% F6 h- ^1 Y+ M5 y( s. \0 A综合而言,在上限以内时,一人打打一门,二人打打二门,三人打打二门,四人及五人打打三门,但若仔细看其实一律打二门与最适打差得有限。如一人打时只差2%(50,000与48,910比),四人打差3%,五人打差1%因此好牌时一律打二门无妨。
8 ^9 p4 B. t1 i1 i注意「上限以内」为前提。
, s0 S& `+ [9 N  e如果上限为500,好牌应下1000,则即使只一人打也应打二门甚至三门,又最后一回不必省牌多打几门无妨。
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{:8_286:} {:8_287:} {:8_288:} {:8_289:}
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:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory:
:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
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