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“10.11”清算事件与宏观逆风共同施压，加密市场处于“初步企稳但未反转”阶段
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比推消息， 多家 VC 在接受采访时表示，当前加密市场的持续回调主要由两大因素推动：10 月 10 日的集中清算事件以及更偏紧的宏观环境。Dragonfly 合伙人 Rob Hadick 指出，低流动性、风险管理不足和预言机或杠杆设计缺陷叠加，导致大规模去杠杆，引发市场不确定性；Tribe Capital 合伙人 Boris Revsin 亦称此次事件是“杠杆洗盘”，并在全市场产生连锁反应。
与此同时，短期降息预期降温、通胀黏性、就业数据走弱、地缘风险升温与消费疲态等宏观因素，使过去两个月风险资产整体承压。Robot Ventures 合伙人 Anirudh Pai 指出，部分美国经济领先指标开始回落，类似走势在此前“衰退担忧”阶段也曾出现，当前尚难判断是否会恶化为全面衰退。VC 们同时提到，除部分回购支持的代币外，市场缺乏新增资金流入，ETF 流入动能放缓，使价格下行更快。
展望未来，VC 认为最关键因素是宏观路径明确化，包括利率政策与美联储未来领导人选，其对风险资产影响将十分显著。数据空窗期亦加大波动，例如下次就业数据被视为重要信号。此外，链上经济活动加速、AI 交易情绪外溢、支付与代币化趋势等长期驱动因素仍被市场低估。
在当前阶段，VC 普遍认为市场进入“初步稳定期”，但不足以宣告底部形成。比特币从 80000 美元附近反弹，ETF 流入略有改善，但整体仍对利率、通胀与 AI 财报敏感。多位受访者将比特币 100000—110000 美元区间视作市场情绪反转的重要区间。若 ETF 持续净流入、衍生品未平仓量温和回升且未出现过度杠杆，才可能形成更稳固的反转结构。
部分投资者指出，当前回调已将部分具收入能力的优质代币估值重置至 2024 年水平，而链上基本面更强，呈现相对吸引力；比特币主导率在本轮回调中未显著上升，显示资金对高质量 Altcoin 仍有配置需求。（The Block）
风险提示： 本新闻涉及的内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。依据发布的信息以及所表达的意见行事所造成的一切后果由行事者自负。文章链接 |
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