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认同“学坏”朋友的计算,骰子投注单一数字,获胜率为50%正,DC没有抽水
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本帖最后由 76gor 于 2012-11-21 11:58 编辑 5 ?% K/ e. w! K! }
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刚刚认真计算了一次;
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假设我每次都是平注投注数字 "6" , 获胜率的计算如下:- g1 m8 j7 k( ]& S+ w+ H7 u# B

9 H3 ~1 r3 A0 y0 C: W2 i" P开3个”6“的几率:(1/6)* (1/6)* (1/6)  =  1/216;
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开2个”6“, 因为有三个组合的可能性,所以几率是:(1/6)* (5/6) * (1/6) *3 = 5/72
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" ]9 z6 O6 |+ ^1 Q开1个”6“,几率是: 1-(5/6 * 5/6 * 5/6) - 5/72 -  1/216 = 25/72" |5 E2 V8 _% S; Y$ Q1 |# a- ~
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收益率:(1/216 *3) + ( 5/72*2)+ 25/72 = 0.5
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8 x# n+ W. t/ n( p: D0 |所以,平注一直投注,基数无限大时,获胜的几率确实为50%整;* d! V/ }) T; n" G( Z. L

8 L6 t$ J2 R9 J/ W& j加上反水,假如有耐心,存个几万,聘请一个人,五块五块的压,那么长期下来,你的收入就等于你的反水率;  ]/ t6 Q+ E! x# B

( T# j- @# G* d  Y8 s2 X以上,76gor$ Z' [6 r4 `1 h3 _5 p
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我试试再深入探讨一下,已经确定赢输几率为50%,假如DC不禁止单边投注,没有信誉问题,以波音平台骰子反水0.8%计算;
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假设存款100A, 每次投注50元单数字(20000注本金),以波音骰子30秒一局计算,
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一天流水为: 50*2*60*24 =¥144,0007 i. D) _2 C0 d) {. H
每天反水为:144000*0.008=¥1,152
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9 t- I8 @( K  v! U6 s假设聘请3个人,轮班工作,每个人一天工资¥150,加上电费,每天支出为:¥5004 ?" X' s# r8 c! Q0 K
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每天净收入为:¥652
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" R8 Q+ u9 J+ A+ k年收入为:¥237,980
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& k, y- k* ^' X1 z, E$ L2 J! z# E唯一难度在于,有100A的人不一定愿意这样赚钱;+ `* @9 v6 V, P! g, ^6 V# R9 j) z3 B
唯二风险在于聘请的人不按章工作,或者DC跑路;1 r8 ?' ?3 H2 c0 |6 i; `" k+ S' ]' W
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回复 2# 76gor
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) h5 o4 ?# c. l5 q: z% q- h   这都能想到,真服了你了。。。;P
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感谢76分享阿
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主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
最近流行探讨这个话题?
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哈哈,楼主被误导了,
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最近流行探讨这个话题?! u3 k; S2 Y( M! X& ^
Terrance 发表于 2012-11-21 12:22
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    竟然有不抽水的赌戏,还是挺有意思的
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哈哈,楼主被误导了,3 ], s; g2 W8 k
beata 发表于 2012-11-21 12:24

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    请指教,我们只聊几率哦
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76哥  那这么说 骰宝还真适合打首存优惠啊?
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楼主分析得好厉害啊
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刚刚认真计算了一次;" @- E. H2 ~- T, |1 ^

" e& ~1 r$ g) W. J假设我每次都是平注投注数字 "6" , 获胜率的计算如下:8 u% ^* ~+ }; j4 D! ]

# m, e% _1 a  Z. F+ g( ^开3个”6“的几率:(1/ ...
) @2 q2 I) C/ X7 z% c( `3 |- o- U9 Z76gor 发表于 2012-11-21 11:54

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- G% g, t/ _% o0 O. l9 ^楼主再仔细想想吧百家乐是公认的抽水最低的游戏( y7 q; ]9 j4 }6 p% [5 ]* |: r( X
大概是1%多点
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至于你现在说的这个抽水其实是相当高的
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楼主再仔细想想吧百家乐是公认的抽水最低的游戏9 M' Q# x3 o0 L# [% S/ l1 |) n: |
大概是1%多点% P; o- G( ]0 `- [. |9 b& C2 E  x) c

* |* U1 n( r: X- m& V3 [( [至于你现在说的这个抽水其实是相当 ...! Z$ @/ o) \$ h. D# d8 _
taishan 发表于 2012-11-21 12:27

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    请指教
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楼主分析不错哦 学习下
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看起来不错,不过没钱实施
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76哥  那这么说 骰宝还真适合打首存优惠啊?. L: ^" E; x) {) S
粤D 发表于 2012-11-21 12:26
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2 ~! W7 ^; Z% {2 e    自问没有计算错误,确实适合磨流水,唯一风险是振幅和DC不允许
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回复 15# 76gor 2 |5 G6 {% x8 _2 C

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   有个风险就是豹子吧!
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回复  76gor
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   有个风险就是豹子吧!% P. r" U9 e( ]6 D* F9 S* y! Z
粤D 发表于 2012-11-21 12:30
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9 H4 C+ C1 b2 N- {& k+ E' S    不是说豹子只杀大小和单双吗?那样的话豹子就不是风险了
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