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[lastpost] => 2784858 分析师警告——比特币不太可能在2025年出现“圣诞行情”（转） 1764251514 jackcool1011
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[虚拟币交流]
比特币反弹逼近 92,000 美元——市场反应的原因如下（转）
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比特币价格再次攀升，而这波市场上涨与美国货币政策预期的转变不谋而合。# K6 H% y, d; A- c" E, @$ D' h! K
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要点总结：5 w d. N P v# Q+ Q; X7 e& z; `
由于交易员预期在凯文·哈塞特可能出任美联储主席的情况下，美联储的立场会更加鸽派，比特币价格反弹至 91,000 美元以上。
1 c9 u! Q' l7 |链上/ x0 A% H8 e1 F( I2 N/ W
在区块链上记录和验证的交易。
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1 A: |$ G* o& G9 q链上信号有所改善，Puell 倍数从深度累积水平上升。
5 T. \3 w+ ?* p$ n" f技术指标偏向看涨，但 93000 美元和 96500 美元仍然是下一个关键阻力位。- x) N5 l/ w, q- Z0 y! c3 }& s% X" d
本周早些时候发生滑倒后，比特币 受交易量上升以及衍生品和链上分析市场情绪改善的支撑，该股在过去 24 小时内反弹至 91,000 美元区域，涨幅达 4%。& f* [, P7 T' N5 `# j: B( D( Z
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美联储主席预期转变——比特币做出反应% N7 W: u% V' x+ V7 S: H' ^. |
推动今天这一举动的关键因素似乎是人们越来越相信凯文·哈塞特现在是……领先候选人在唐纳德·特朗普总统的领导下，哈塞特有望成为下一任美联储主席。预测市场显示，哈塞特遥遥领先于其他竞争者，而且他的政策立场被认为明显更为鸽派——倾向于更大幅度的降息，并可能推出新的量化宽松政策（QE）。$ _, l' J/ _& d- p4 A1 O+ b x9 u
, u S% f- C( ^当市场对未来的货币政策走向有了更清晰的预期时，风险资产往往会提前反映出这种转变。比特币交易员押注哈塞特领导下的美联储将倾向于宽松的金融环境，而历史上这种环境对加密货币通常是有利的。
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链上指标变得具有建设性! F% v* p8 `9 u$ @+ [: @$ |; `8 z4 s
普埃尔倍数（Puell Multiple）是一个备受关注的模型，历史上它通常预示着比特币周期触底，当该指标跌破 0.50 时，比特币价格就会触底反弹。目前，该指标已升至 0.67。虽然这一数值仍处于下行积累区间，但分析师指出，当该指标从低位回升时，比特币通常会开始恢复上涨动能。# u! @! i5 F4 ]5 W
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普埃尔倍数已对比特币进行了标记$BTC自 2015 年以来，当价格跌破 0.50 时，周期便触底。
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/ h3 i! X9 `9 ^1 j9 \! Z# E现在是0.67。pic.twitter.com/6Z0ednSaRf: t. h i6 y% y4 r
$ d) m3 ^5 l5 a. ^* ^0 s— Ali (@ali_charts)2025年11月26日' A5 ~, s8 d0 z% r0 L" A, I* k
! N) s+ r6 c3 q; m9 i5 X市场观察人士强调，以往的周期中，当矿业公司收入趋于稳定且普埃尔倍数脱离极低水平时，都会出现大幅上涨——这种模式现在开始重演。$ } [( D: Z& \
+ n; y( O1 \# y3 E衍生品在最近的价格波动中发挥了作用。过去一天，价值超过 1.32 亿美元的比特币头寸……清算其中空头占了绝大部分（约1.14亿美元）。资金重置和强制清算进一步推动了比特币在上周大幅抛售后的反弹。
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1 V. l7 s( u4 K+ A技术图表显示动能正在增强。
" c& E$ H/ {! Y* c比特币4小时图显示结构正在走强，RSI# s" K1 C3 V( j, |! t6 ]
2 c3 i: i, b9 D: U4 m8 |3 o1 g5 j2 ?0 R相对强弱指数
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# S) E9 ]9 g# J和 RSI正在恢复到65-70分的水平MACD
% e; |8 V, b. C2 q移动平均收敛/发散4 b& Y3 N$ [* `+ K) O9 l: R
9 u, x; V! w- W9 ]* M; A“>MACD向上突破零轴，表明动能正在增强。% T3 i# S" Z5 @8 ?& v+ Z
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