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本帖最后由 陆安梦 于 2017-12-20 14:29 编辑
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' ?' o, W8 g( K其实原文标题不是这样的, c+ O& ]8 Y+ Z+ ?0 Z9 a' J
) \! m1 N4 a z( r" C- a/ a% W这是我看完的心得所下的 说真的很实用 因昨天我玩了40分钟的捕鱼机深深有感!!!
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有一天，一个专业的赌徒遇到了上帝...
& R; H* P T" y9 j$ I他希望能和上帝来场赌局。! F( W! n: d% W2 V) r0 E O# H U% C
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「我有无限多的金钱。」上帝说着。. g% @- y& f4 ` w# m* o5 P5 u
6 w* D5 x0 S5 R6 c! G 「无论多久我都能和您赌下去，您可以带走所有您赢到的金钱。」
8 F& C- D7 L# E4 W5 ]3 a' [+ T 9 k p) x8 I5 q% I
「我只有一个要求，我们赌掷铜板，由您选择正反面。」 「选对了便可以从我这拿走一枚金币，反之我要拿走您一枚金币。」
: `3 i z) c) a$ E& x2 U「如同人生一样，您的人生，您自己选择。」
+ l, a) m/ d& E5 U8 a b/ b" ]! }7 f# {4 o: a- `; i* a2 `4 Y% k
上帝笑着说完，便把铜板交给赌徒。
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( h: s! A i) r% p: F5 _ i4 ~接过铜板，赌徒凭着过往的经验，便立即察觉 铜板反面的重量比正面稍重，2 U4 u" ?) V1 I$ y e0 ]3 Q1 x! |
因此铜板较容易出现正面。
J: S% m5 a- W+ B* p长期而言，正面出现的次数会高于反面，较有长期优势。 6 S7 J' J0 E& B& Z$ B/ R% M
因此，赌徒二话不说，掏出身上20枚金币，心中暗自窃喜。
/ R" X9 X3 X( Q6 J1 y! l) r& \心想赢定了。" T* L# Q0 n8 C& {6 G
" o& @/ q1 w) O! |没想到开始不到半刻钟，0 |% d+ C1 H7 q5 Q; ~9 Q0 s
赌徒已经把20枚金币便已经输个精光。 「应该只是运气不好吧！」
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+ @- `3 K# y$ t' E赌徒不甘心，又带了100枚金币来比试，
. S3 t. G/ o/ b. e9 z: O; U但过了一整天后却仍输个精光。
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* T. p% j( u- E( S1 f& s! T7 u赌徒百思不得其解，他明明已经占尽优势，为何还会失败?4 @0 k+ t# X; Z. ^* S
他恳请上帝告诉他原因。
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上帝回答道：% U: c" b( z1 X% x. b
「我会赢，只是因为我有 无限的资本。」% G2 S0 ~3 R' S% R1 V
「因此，如果时间够长，输光所有的钱会先发生在您身上。」0 ]* B8 G0 x) h/ c$ y3 N! X: Z
「而不是先发生在我身上。」
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赌徒恍然大悟，2 R5 k) T, A( }5 ^% |
原来他穷极一生 追求技巧，寻找赌局中的些微优势，; O: R. Y, w; P
竟然没有准备 充足的资金来得重要！
. z4 \; M7 ]7 }( l0 C8 n「因此，如果您身上带的是一万枚金币，那赢的想必就会是您了。」
* G7 q/ e+ h' O# j c; h1 \2 C上帝说完便不见踪影。 5 L1 U* M9 @! |) ]; P5 K8 i* O
一旦赌局无法再继续下去，拥有再大的优势也没有意义 一枚较容易出现正面的铜板，; ^" o3 S+ F' U4 G4 O. A$ R
若掷铜板1000次，最后结果可能是正面出现550次，反面出现450次，
" M0 G4 |8 d1 X1 P! S0 ~1000次下来，赌徒可以赚到100枚金币，
9 \9 I6 k, z0 E! C) t; v4 u对赌徒十分有利。
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9 ^* z3 `5 n8 z' ]2 D T9 R8 Z, O但要是450次的反面，在一开始就 连续的出现，
+ [ H3 @9 h, A) r/ K1 Z在还没掷到1000次之前，5 s) h7 g, F! @( b
仅有100枚金币的赌徒便会先破产。
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赌徒拥有运气与勇气，但却没有充足的资本实现获利。
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# ~2 p0 N0 K: A! O! j 事实上，当资本不足时，即使有任何长期优势都难以发挥。
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9 s$ j9 { J6 H 市场就像是个金钱无限的上帝，投资就如同和上帝赌掷铜板，# g u; k3 f) [6 O6 V
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永远必须准备足够的资本，才有可能真正实现长期的获利喔！
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