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[虚拟币交流]
8月重挫17%，“比特币持仓溢价”抹去大半，“数字币财库龙头”MSTR面临考验
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作为“比特币财库公司”模式的开创者，Strategy（原MicroStrategy，MSTR）正在经历一次前所未有的市场考验。8月份，
9 b# g1 h8 c2 zStrategy股价累计下跌16.8%，3 @/ I. _4 O X) N! k/ E. j8 r7 p
抹去了公司长期相较于其比特币持仓所享有的大部分溢价。
% s; c9 u3 Y4 t3 w) T# C p% P3 K市场的担忧主要来自Strategy融资策略的突然转变。公司原计划通过优先股募资购买比特币，但近期仅筹集了4700万美元，远低于预期。为弥补不足，Strategy重启了普通股发行计划，违背了此前限制稀释的承诺- c- j4 i2 h- Y+ l4 g; f) f o. d3 r
。& m/ f# J# u s
这一战略反转不仅打击了投资者信心，也对整个比特币财库模式构成威胁。目前，仿效Strategy模式的企业财库总计持有超过1080亿美元比特币，占总供应量的4.7%。若Strategy的溢价优势崩塌，这一模式的可持续性将受到全面质疑。
- L9 G: N. P& R9 @- {) n& C“财库模式”的破局
$ F+ R5 @9 s4 e9 U8 c8 x+ O8 {Strategy的商业逻辑一度被视为华尔街的创新案例：通过发行债券和股票融资购入比特币，再依赖市场给予的溢价不断滚动扩张。
' {; x3 ^6 S# I% A这一模式在2020年开启后，迅速点燃了企业财务配置数字资产的潮流。截至目前，全球已有逾百家公司效仿，合计持有约1080亿美元的比特币，占流通总量的4.7%。3 W# K/ v0 l2 @
而如今，这套模式正在遭遇逆风。* y) S' `4 G& Y8 l) p7 q/ H1 y& n+ `
7月底，Strategy承诺，除特殊情况外，不会在比特币持仓倍数（mNAV）倍数低于2.5的情况下发行股票。但仅两周后，这一指导方针就被放宽，8月25日，公司又发行了近90万股新股。$ c- x/ @. u: N2 @" {% ]* V
该“食言”举动彻底引发了投资者的信任危机，进一步压低了溢价。6 H( R: b# h ^+ P* _6 A& V( ~( b
Strategy的股价已不再与其软件业务相关，而是锚定于mNAV。过去，这一倍数曾因市场波动在危机与牛市间反复起伏，例如Terra-Luna暴雷期间大幅收缩，而特朗普连任后曾回升至3.4倍。如今，mNAV已降至1.57倍，且下跌发生在比特币依然强势的行情中，显示市场对“财库模式”本身的信心正在动摇。: i( T: [. ^: I+ s8 U
分析人士指出，当公司选择在mNAV低位继续增发股份时，可能触发“负向飞轮”：股价下跌削弱购币能力，进一步侵蚀市场信心，导致溢价加速压缩。( z; W. G& w% W- n( z
据Wintermute场外交易台首席分析师Jake Ostrovskis表示：“溢价下降是对竞争和获取数字资产敞口的替代方式的自然反应。此外，收回关于在2.5倍mNAV以下不发行股票的指导，迫使市场短期重新评估公司战略。”& D" {8 }2 B2 E( G! o, |) F" L
比特币现货ETF崛起，多元资产分流，比特币财库企业普遍承压& p. x. o3 z, L8 ]5 P% v4 w
不仅是Strategy，比特币财库企业普遍面临压力。
/ r; m" G. ^, n A根据Capriole Investments数据，近三分之一将比特币纳入资产负债表的上市公司，其股票交易价格现已低于这些储备的价值。小型企业尤为脆弱：流动性限制使股票发行更加痛苦，而对可转换债券的依赖带来利息负担和到期风险。" H J& a0 B* L9 _$ i) s$ h* k
Capriole创始人Charles Edwards表示：
+ K0 c0 O. k2 J2 }3 ` z1 f“如果比特币下跌50%会发生什么？对财库公司的热情将减弱，mNAV将压缩，数百家公司将开始质疑其财库策略。”
) ?# M' D$ Q; c. Y1 ~0 d另一挑战来自现货比特币ETF的兴起。最初，Strategy们和现货ETF都受益于美国大选后的比特币价格反弹，但由于基金提供比特币敞口，而没有与公司治理、杠杆或稀释相关的风险，比特币财库企业的相对优势越来越弱。& m) w4 s5 ]7 a! @: v
同时，关注点正在转向以太币和索拉纳等其他数字资产，一些人认为这些资产更适合去中心化金融。仅以以太币为重点的财库就已投入超过190亿美元。
& N. j2 o: t! l3 ~# y尽管比特币本身已从本月早些时候创下的高点回落，但仍受到机构配置的支撑。许多较新的财库公司在10万美元以上买入，如果市场转向，缺乏维持它们的基础业务。
! p$ [: j s9 G b5 y美国大学法学教授Hilary Allen指出：“除了情绪之外，比特币背后什么都没有。”
/ H9 `; v8 e: _% @% k! l& Q8 Y本文来自华尔街见闻，欢迎下载APP查看更多% r3 s% q+ G4 U% P$ w0 P" R
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