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[lastpost] => 2758258 最新币圈动态看XBIT，以太坊抛压风险大，价值超37亿ETH待解锁 1755691455 anzizhong
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当前离线
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基本面： 昨日可谓是喜忧参半，早盘、午盘行情分析基本在预料之中，晚上的行情分析确实是差强人意，可以说是翻车级的表现，等心情平复之后开始复盘，反思。昨日晚间美股、黄金、加密市场均出现不同程度大幅下跌，英伟达暴跌3.5%，拖累NQ指数暴跌1.35%，BTC收跌2.89%，从市场关联来看，美债、美元走强，市场争先在买入保险，削减风险资产仓位，说明市场心态：先避险，再说未来。很像2008年那种经典模式：投资者最先做的动作就是“砍风险资产”，去买能保命的东西。这说明市场在“去杠杆”，而不是单纯的情绪波动。因为加密货币往往是风险偏好最强的资产，一旦资金连它都不要，说明是真的收紧风险敞口。本周风险事件两件：周四凌晨2点的美联储会议纪要、周五美联储主席鲍威尔周五在杰克逊霍尔年会上的演讲。技术面：) `( M6 ~1 |4 P# T# Q9 L
BTC周线
{* E3 {. G, Y7 i周线：自2111-4794日线级别五浪上涨结束，基本确认周线级别3浪结束，那么市场现在是周线四浪调整，根据艾略特波浪理论交替原则回撤原则，周线级别2浪横向调整（扩散平台形调整），那么大概率4浪会是陡直调整（几乎总是锯齿形或者锯齿形开始的双重三浪），现在第一波锯齿形ABC已经走出来，后续是双锯齿形还是双重三浪根据这几日反弹程度再确认。
; F) s: C' y( d9 |( v9 J' g1 o8 {价格预测：（1）根据回撤原则，尤其调整浪本身是第四浪的时候，往往在先前小一浪级第四浪运动区域内记录下它们的最大回撤，大多数在它们终点附近，而日线级别四浪运动区域为3353-3940。（2）按斐波那契百分比测算支撑位的话3770（0.382）3452（0.5）3135（0.618）（3）通道测算 目前调整浪走的太少，连接1浪3浪画一条与其平行线即可 通过这些假设，未来ETH回调空间可能会比较大。双锯齿形的话就要测试3400-3800支撑位了，日内最低已经4060，但是这个位置会反弹，去确认上方的压力位
4 N$ E/ P8 ^- X2 e9 ^" X* G日线级别分析思路源自周线级别：4000上方的位置向上反弹，去确认验证后期双锯齿形还是三重三浪，到时候具体分析
) m* ]+ r# D. {昨日晚间技术分析上我也反思了一下：没有根据图表形态分析行情走势，其实2h线自4575开始的压力趋势线始终未有效突破，仅仅依据K线启明星形态、附图指标来预测行情，缺乏多重验证，有点太左侧交易，而且启明星出来之后确实反弹了一波，但是4250-4280根本就不是好的入场点位，多总结反思以免自己少犯错误，其实也有点玄学的味道，前几日太顺利，导致心态也有点小浮躁，不严谨了
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当前离线
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当前离线
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当前离线
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