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[lastpost] => 2785411 比特币巨鲸出售 500 个比特币，损失 1050 万美元——原因如下（转） 1764432946 jackcool1011
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[虚拟币交流]
150亿美元期权到期冲击比特币和以太坊——底部遥遥无期？（转）
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一件大事发生又过去了，加密货币市场几乎没有反应。
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# V( j) ]: T1 K _/ M: d11月28日，约有15万份比特币（比特币）期权（价值134亿美元）和57.3万份以太坊（以太坊）期权（价值17亿美元）到期，总价值达154亿美元。简而言之，这标志着本月末一次重要的期权到期。0 L$ E, A4 w* O7 ]$ O z. O) a `
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有趣的部分是什么？职位浓度很高：BTC的看跌/看涨比率达到 0.58，这意味着多头多于空头，最大损失约为 10 万美元。ETH完美平衡，看跌/看涨期权比率为 1.0，最大损失为 3.4k 美元。
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然而，尽管到期债券规模巨大，市场却几乎没有波动。7 }/ k! M1 b) E7 h) S, H
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从技术角度来看，比特币收于 90,955 美元，盘中最高触及 93,000 美元，低于其最大止损位。需要说明的是，最大止损位是指期权卖方（空头）为了限制损失而卖出比特币的价格。6 G( D: K0 Q" |1 }3 G, ~9 |- p
/ Q# @# i9 |) T( B0 S. G在这种情况下，由于比特币价格保持在 10 万美元以下，卖方无需费力推高价格，市场也保持相对平静。因此，真正的问题是：这种稳定是否体现了比特币的潜在实力？
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干净利落地冲刷并冷静地等待比特币触底反弹。& Q) ]( I9 R! F, Y& J M6 f
市场仍在试图判断比特币是否真的已经触底。
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5 r) @/ ?" }$ O0 a7 h4 }在此背景下，BitMEX创始人亚瑟·海耶斯有人认为比特币可能已经触底反弹。在最近一次抛售潮中，他看好该股股价达到 8 万美元。他的这一观点基于美联储可能即将结束量化紧缩周期的假设。
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7 P: I2 g; U; g: |同时，CryptoQuant 指出市场刚刚经历了本周期以来最大规模的未平仓合约清仓。合约规模从约450亿美元骤降至280亿美元，大量过热头寸被清除。
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$ E4 S H( {3 ]/ g0 ?! @ [简而言之，市场经历了一次彻底的洗牌。( p2 v$ r% |9 M& D) d, p4 h6 t
7 o( W, c1 L+ y在此背景下，价值 150 亿美元的比特币和以太坊期权到期时，杠杆率已经大幅下降。这也解释了为什么此次事件几乎没有引起市场波动。
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与此同时，在避险情绪浓厚的环境下，即使比特币价格一度飙升至 10 万美元，但仍能维持在 9 万美元左右，这表明卖方并不需要进一步压低价格。买家仍在陆续介入。捍卫支持。8 i9 y5 E4 I0 X9 R' ^4 u+ l+ c; a: z
X# a) X) Q( ]1 ~& K在这种情况下，这种韧性可能是比特币触底的早期迹象。8 `( @6 e7 u! m% ~. u: d$ v
0 q; A/ a& S7 C* L6 j: r; S+ p最后想说的话
. ?& j4 @ Y# q5 ]尽管大量比特币和以太坊到期，但市场几乎没有波动，显示出较低的波动性，因为杠杆已经清算完毕。
/ h1 j8 a2 v: n比特币价格维持在 9 万美元左右，低于最高价位（10 万美元），这表明买家守住了支撑位，市场可能正在形成底部。
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