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[虚拟币交流]
比特币暴涨只等现货ETF通过？彭博：三大利好正在发酵（转载）
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比特币ETF何时能够获得批准的时程备受市场关注，根据彭博社的统计，美国证券交易
i! C% D3 R6 N7 W4 u9 B- b; {委员会(SEC)需要在9月1日之前针对Bitwise比特币ETP信托基金做出决定，但是SEC同样可以先选择延迟，而来自
9 A( ~5 n& r& E! W$ GBlackRock、VanEck、WisdomTree和Invesco的申请决定也在一天之后展开。/ w* L% _' Q# {& Y0 c; z
通常来说，当比特币现货ETF在《联邦公报》上发布后便会进入公开评论期，SEC通常会在45天内作出初步决定，
2 R8 L. u$ j/ P, x% {1 g批准或拒绝该申请，届时若未做出裁决则再延45天，第二次仍未有结果则再延90天，最久必须在公开评论期开始, e2 O# i; b# j0 r
后240天做出裁决。
* {/ \& {2 b0 q( e9 f3 A分析师：预料之内会被推迟
0 @6 a Q9 n2 O1 l彭博ETF分析师James Seyffart，曾经预测灰度GBTC转现货ETF的判决最早可能在8月15日出炉，如今这个预测也
1 I6 |! u. @( q5 K! F$ l变为「理论上的日期」，目前并没有传出任何更新，他表示「这些决定都会被延迟是预料之内」，而据灰度官方* W# W k) k" ?
在7月底的发文，他们则是预测法院可能在今年秋季作出判决。专注于数字资产的机构平台FRNT Financial的执行
7 v8 l) \$ r$ C$ I长Stephane Ouellette则在彭博社采访时表示：ETF申请的基本情况是，管理机构将继续使用多年来的所有权力
* {+ k6 V: h+ h* M4 y' A, ]$ B- J. i0 O来推迟决定，即使这些产品最终获得批准，在第一次获得批准的情况下，看到它们获得批准还是会非常令人惊$ H' c+ ^( e& D; l: j: O; N( D
讶。
/ q- M+ N# A3 \% x0 T事实上，女股神Cathie Wood早在8月上旬就发表看法，认为SEC通过现货ETF是迟早的事，且为了帮助平衡竞争
. F- p" s2 s- s. D$ e2 _* r) W! H5 c环境，届时可能会一次同时批准多家公司的申请;而最关键的时间点，她预期会是落在灰度赢得与SEC的诉讼，成2 y1 h# f C, c. Z) `9 K! r7 x) `
功将GBTC向比特币现货ETF转型之后。
$ ?7 @: ^! L# N7 [! F三大利好消息酝酿
/ t8 Q. [' b/ a' C9 c$ X5 Q9 f市场普遍认为SEC可能对比特币ETF的立场有所软化的潜在积极信号主要有三个：$ O S# b/ l- X, _- O
GBTC负溢价率缩窄" }, _9 t* Y8 o- C$ L
最受市场瞩目的GBTC转比特币现货ETF的预测其实可以从GBTC的负溢价率来看，GBTC自从2021年2月以后就持
6 c; ^3 ^' Q; w# e续呈现「负溢价」，并在去年底比特币大跌的时候一度逼近-50%。不过随着市场回温以及GBTC转型成现货ETF可
5 K' b. e% e3 O5 j/ Z( Y能性的上升，负溢价正持续减少中。据Ychart数据，截至上周五(18日)GBTC的负溢价已来到约-25%。. j/ \/ u8 U4 d( N ~# A
杠杆型比特币期货ETF已上线
+ y8 A' A" b) h# ?! Y c+ k值得一提的是，ETF发行商Volatility Shares早在6月27日上线杠杆型比特币ETF，其中「2倍杠杆」意味着用户只6 d. J7 O4 u6 n7 u! C1 l, s+ R+ M
要投入比特币价值的一半就可以放大成一枚的比特币，自亮相以来，以吸引超过2000万美元的资金投入。+ `* N/ Q: J' e \
多档以太坊期货ETF提交申请; u# \1 @$ m$ M8 l+ i- j
不只是比特币的相关金融产品展开新的进度，Volatility Shares也在7月28日向SEC提交以太坊期货ETF申请，随后
, h8 Z M5 @0 G+ Q, i多家美国基金管理公司也纷纷提出以太坊期货ETF申请，迄今有高达16档以太坊期货ETF正等待SEC的审查，虽然
3 |/ E7 G: h# d" ]知情人士强调，以太坊期货ETF是否能推出，尚未得到保证，但也被认为是一大利好消息。& o) N3 i% u# ]- w# e, Q2 o' l
- ?8 q" n3 c, ]3 i
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