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% i. h$ [6 W& s+ h 中信证券(26.430, 0.45, 1.73%)发布研报称，加密货币具有较好的隐私性和抗通胀性，自诞生以来成长迅速，并且正在逐步正规资产化。随着加密货币的刚需扩大，
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形成类似黄金的刚需托底，投机定价的格局。但短期来看由于货币化不足和边际定价者风险偏好高，加密货币反而投机性更强。中长期内，预计加密货币和黄金都将受益于
4 Z$ B. e6 ?( f" y. ]
; I& T, v5 U2 u5 U逆全球化、去美元化带来的货币化。“未来黄金”不必然包含比特币，但大概率有加密货币。短期内加密货币有望受益于特朗普任期内可能的监管放松，但需等待贸易、外交政
! e6 g8 d8 z* e. }7 j* ^5 F! U7 x6 K9 U6 c5 J
策的确定性。: `4 h0 S: r2 N$ q) a
# p! n7 v, l# y- E 中信证券主要观点如下：4 N4 N' z! X7 z, x( O& B
# t+ i8 |$ x2 t5 U q0 Z 加密货币是一种基于区块链技术的数字货币，具有较好的隐私性、抗通胀性。
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自其诞生以来，市场成长迅速，例如比特币呈指数型增长。
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5 g. E0 C: L: ]. ` 近期加密货币表现不佳，并未体现出避险属性。
+ x) N. T+ J/ B1 ^8 C$ X- k' f/ O" n& J5 m* |! E4 @! \) i1 h( U
2024年比特币主要有一季度和四季度两波集中上涨，分别是因为ETF发行、比特币减半、亚洲投资者热情高；以及特朗普交易影响。但2025年以来比特币及其他加密货币表现 u& L Z6 t4 Z5 `# m+ b
8 ?+ h( ]/ t( m0 C% L不佳，与黄金走势背离，并未体现出避险属性。
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. T6 S( ?; ^; {. z6 l- ~ 加密货币市场与黄金愈发相似。7 ~3 n7 H' c6 `1 q% ]
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从规模来看，加密货币市场仍明显小于黄金市场，增长空间巨大。从持有结构来看，两者都是集中度较高，且加密货币市场持有结构更加不透明，均有利于价格的长期上行。; i6 [- Y. s5 b0 B8 L. L
& q1 m8 V0 A6 n5 f- n2 r( h 加密货币开始出现刚性需求，形成与黄金类似的刚需托底，投机定价的格局。
7 q- P7 H5 p6 B1 m" {9 m& J$ C- i3 a8 [3 v* W4 h+ H& D
由于加密货币在跨境支付、抗通胀信用方面具有优势，形成了快速增长的刚性需求。加密货币正在快速的“正规化”、“黄金化”，与黄金一样形成了刚需，以确保其难以出现泡沫8 S0 C; H: h7 L s8 Y
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破灭、大量投机交易完成定价的格局。; f" s+ S! t/ O$ v7 f9 J
( a& _9 @3 [$ _. V- f 短期内，加密货币的货币及避险属性仍不及黄金，因此表现背离。
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+ \& S: p4 b8 s# B5 A7 t" s 我们认为根本的原因是1）社会认知、税收制度中加密货币的货币化程度不及黄金。2）由于加密货币高成长性，边际定价者的风险偏好高。短期内，加密货币避险属性和投机属性- B) N0 u( |/ p$ z g; t# x0 Y
' I, Y/ C b" \1 ] r' T共存，后者更占上风。长期来看这些因素望将淡化。
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" u" }# }5 ?# G- D6 E: ~ 长期来看，加密货币料仍然有极大的增长空间，最根本的逻辑是逆全球化及去美元化，驱动黄金、加密货币的货币化。
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2008年以来逆全球化和去美元化进程持续，预计加密货币坚实的市场需求仍将持续扩大。我们判断在长时间维度上，黄金和加密货币的货币属性，都会是“未来黄金”。由于技术劣
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势，比特币不必然是未来的黄金，但“未来黄金”大概率包含加密货币。尽管如此，我们认为技术优势战胜信念优势需要很长时间，比特币在加密货币中的独有地位仍将维持很久。. N& W5 L% _# ^ M: q- X5 K3 P
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展望未来四年，比特币及其他加密货币在特朗普的支持下仍然可能表现亮眼，但短期转好需要特朗普给出确定性信号。5 N- e3 w, `) H3 l5 d- h2 m/ C2 |
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本届特朗普ZF与硅谷的紧密联系让加密货币有望受益于潜在的监管放松。但短期内贸易政策不确定性等因素压制了风险偏好与流动性宽松。转涨或需等待特朗普给出外交和贸易政. ~8 g0 o- K% r) `
/ z9 L' ^7 w8 G策确定性。未来若特朗普ZF对俄政策转向也可能带来风险。2 F z: n3 Z7 y
8 [8 W4 n p2 j) B! p' @' L 风险因素：: E. C1 m$ p6 s2 q. I ]
9 K( a! R, ]; d! P' Q$ K% n; b 特朗普ZF政策超预期；美国联邦债务问题超预期；美联储货币政策宽松不及预期；地缘ZZ风险。& b9 `! q; J" U) n
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