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: S% a7 _" q; o% S) W/ i. h( z比特币最近甚至大幅跑赢了自10月底以来一直走高的道琼斯工业平均指数和标普500指数。
' @' x' [% S+ |5 O- W5 ` `3 z! O
# \$ z K3 \7 J' `. i& B监管机构有望很快批准首只现货比特币交易所交易基金(ETF)是比特币上涨背后的主要推动力，! D w4 B5 C" y3 o" M
. t9 c1 W* ~; D) F3 t0 B专家预测，这将引发投资者对数字资产的新一轮兴趣。 ! T2 ?! f/ C0 \* ` J
s0 C w8 z0 C; I有关美联储明年将多次降息的预期升温也给比特币带来提振，利率下降通常利好比特币和科技3 {; i5 w# T0 q+ J3 O* |% m
7 u1 `! F B( h" l* U+ v/ E8 M
股等风险较高的投资。 3 D' s0 f$ b( z. Z1 V' G
! j9 {( V* \. w3 s芝加哥商品交易所(CME)的美联储观察(FedWatch)工具显示，联邦基金期货交易员预计，美联储
, y; D- t8 ~6 s6 T y
4 X! Z# _7 k- T# o: G明年3月降息25个基点的概率超过50%，高于一周前的21.5%。 & {8 N6 }3 ?4 B' ?! F- O
- v6 q& O$ _: |1 ~% ~$ z0 w) d5 h
现在的问题是，比特币接下来会怎么走？除了供应和需求之外，比特别几乎没有什么基本面驱动; h9 Z' d4 n* Y. p3 d: [
* t( V0 f) [6 ?5 f4 O3 }因素，但分析人士认为，比特币还有更大的上涨空间。
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5 ]: P2 m+ K5 w7 h- }' r1 r从技术面来看，比特币在过去被证明波动非常大的一个区间内拥有上涨动能。 ; C: d1 ]* w4 U$ P* B; Z
) R- _3 s8 H. D更广泛地来看，虽然比特币有进入超买区域的风险，但交易数据显示，交易量仍然相对低迷，因此; b: x* f3 y7 ^9 O
2 k/ A/ K/ }% `' }仍有许多交易商可能买入。 " m8 j! p7 L# y, g9 G) W
# g. U" C6 C6 u' q* Y
库普齐克维奇说：“越来越多的投资者会因为‘害怕错过’(FOMO)而买入。”FOMO是加密货币最强大的
s: s, C' |1 [7 g! T+ x3 k( Z* h0 d* y, m5 Q" L4 e( k$ _0 |( t* F9 G
推动力之一。 & d6 q) _$ P' @, K7 Z
9 c' F* k3 M$ u$ w02
, I N8 Y" C' G. x( B! x, z: z5 Y3 o" x7 E+ ^' M/ w
有证据显示，许多散户和机构交易员仍在离场观望，近期的上涨可能会吸引更多人买入。 0 F* _4 ^' C. k0 m
, v8 s+ g3 |' G# d需求增加的同时，比特币供应紧张——许多长期持有者不愿卖出，价格可能还会走高。
& M* V* D- @- ]& w$ B; {) L! M7 p! L( P: e6 u
加密金融服务公司Galaxy Digital的研究主管亚历克斯·索恩(Alex Thorn)说：“这次反弹让很多感兴趣: n" G6 n, m* F/ {* I3 G3 D7 T
6 L4 e7 I3 s3 U# S6 g5 g) H: B的人离场观望，他们可能会随后参与进来。虽然最近已经大幅上涨，但比特币仍有继续上涨的空间。” % X" x3 f" r$ m4 _* k& x" e
! |) }. k& o, v2 p. A
数字资产基金ProChain Capital总裁兼联合创始人大卫·塔威尔(David Tawil)预计，比特币将持续反弹至8 i, u e% M; m- V% @
6 d* ^. C8 n/ X3 H; L今年年底，比特币ETF获批时，价格达到4.7万美元的高位。
6 F0 w u2 f! T$ Y* _3 P: S6 M" v! J& O' I" y+ Y5 D
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