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美联储前三把手杜德利表示，美联储可能在50基点和100基点之间选择一个折中点，因此，此次加息75个基点的可能性更大。
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. z1 y9 K% u3 G! T, z持续受恐慌情绪影响，隔夜美股收盘，标普500指数连续两日收于熊市区间，和道琼斯指数均连跌五日。三大指数中，只有纳指小幅收涨，暂别近两年低谷。 9 } [; O/ w8 L$ n4 l
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在上周五公布的通胀数据意外上行并创四十年新高之后，市场普遍预计美联储将更加激进地加息。
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5 V- F, j L. z; t2 j0 Z, l9 m目前，美联储将在本周的利率决议上加息75个基点逐渐成为华尔街的共识，其中包括巴克莱、摩根大通、高盛等大型投行。 4 ?. K1 I& b, a2 {2 t
. a, n, d) {3 C$ H9 }据芝加哥商品交易所（CME）的美联储观察工具，从6月10日至13日，美联储本周加息75个基点的可能性已从23.2%上升至95.5%。
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摩根大通经济学家Michael Feroli和渣打银行全球外汇研究和北美宏观策略负责人Steven Englander甚至认为美联储本次可能加息100个基点。
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值得一提的是，美联储前三把手、前纽约联储主席威廉·杜德利也做出类似的预测。 , |- }7 v( J. R
; ~/ A) c* y7 {) d: a“我的感觉是，美联储已经决定加息75个基点而非50个基点，因为过去一周的数据显示通胀上升，而且可能会有一些关于通胀预期的更令人不安的消息。”
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4 y0 ?; L0 q6 [2 ?7 u此外，杜德利表示，美联储完全可以基于同样的理由在本次的利率决议中加息100个基点，因为：
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“如果你认为速度和最终达到的水平一样重要，那为什么不快点到达呢？”
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5 O' w: |: v0 t根据杜德利的说法，美联储可能在50基点和100基点之间选择一个折中点，因此，此次加息75个基点的可能性更大。
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Z: U. j! q, y: {* @4 [如果华尔街的共识变成现实，这将是美联储自1994年以来首次一次性加息75个基点。
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: M' g, h) }: V3 f2 @, T按照美联储在加息周期开始时的说法，美联储的目标是尽可能快地让利率回到中性水平。但在5月的储例行新闻发布会上，鲍威尔改变了这种以中性利率为目标的态度，明确表示加到中性利率后再定加息终点。他表示要继续加息，直到有“明确和令人信服”的证据表明通胀正在放缓。
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另外，鲍威尔在5月的例行新闻发布会上表示，未来两次会议可能加息50个基点，暂排除75个基点加息。但有分析表示，加息50个基点可能会给金融市场带来更大的混乱。 |
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