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[lastpost] => 2818766 贝莱德比特币ETF交易量在加密货币市场激增——这预示着什么？（转） 1775321311 垂钓园
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以太坊预测转向看涨：第三季度可能达到 3000 美元吗？（转）
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随着 345 万 ETH 累计价格接近 2,500 美元，以太坊预测获得看涨权重。这是否加强了 ETH 在第三季度突破 3000 美元的理由？
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0 o8 C6 U/ Y: D+ W3 m' H以太坊[ETH]第三季度开始强劲反弹，在不到一周的时间内收复了两个主要阻力位。
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3 x9 g: x1 N- G2 U1 o9 H4 k毫不奇怪，这种抛物线走势会促使交易员大量做空，其中 60% 的交易所头寸倾向于看跌。% O" J* p8 o+ }1 ?9 w7 g2 A% n
/ h/ e. m9 i7 w, h: `5 V要么是空头抢先拒绝，要么是他们低估了 ETH 冲动走势背后的力量。据 AMBCrypto 称，此次僵局的进展可能会影响未来一周以太坊的预测。4 r& a) [* H. Y- j
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第三季度以太坊预测的分歧
; `' r b9 Y [/ d: ?有趣的是，以太坊上涨近 7% 至 2,620 美元并非只是又一次反弹。相反，这是对上周 2.4 万美元下方窄幅区间的技术突破。7 \ ~: s( M' ]/ G/ G A- F+ u2 M
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该区间是在 ETH 于 6 月 22 日跌至数月低点 2,114 美元后形成的。
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+ _7 q, _4 z& iETH 在不到 20 个交易日内累计上涨近 23%。通常情况下，这种持续的盘整阶段会成为持续上涨的跳板。9 | `* n7 J# G, u
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但背景很重要。在 5 月至 6 月的周期中，类似的以太坊预测在 2.8 万美元时就失败了，未能突破 3000 美元。
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随之而来的是急剧的去杠杆事件，导致 ETH 在不到两周的时间内下跌了 20%。; S( F$ E5 |3 ^5 ], V
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快进到现在，以太坊的未平仓合约（OI）为 365 亿美元，抓挠回到 6 月中旬 417.5 亿美元的高点，就在那场大规模清算潮之前。9 y8 k# p6 w; ?8 n }
- R! k# \2 P+ f, H+ S1 Q因此，空头纷纷涌入各大交易所，预期市场将再次出现上涨，这并不令人意外。
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但这次的关键分歧是否会成为催化剂，证明空头过于倾向于不再适用的叙述——这可能会重新调整以太坊未来的预测？
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; O% Z6 j$ H- cETH 奠定了坚实的基础
8 `* r% g( Z1 g2 L: K以太坊在七月份的开始并不平静。在本月第一天大幅下跌 3.2% 之后，E第二天，TH 股价迅速反弹，上涨 6.86%，引发了典型的空头挤压。
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8 s6 M1 s" u7 W/ M8 j V至关重要的是，以太坊预测的反弹不仅仅是由 ETH/BTC 比率的 3.78% 飙升所推动的。1 `7 o1 g/ g: e
8 M2 W3 N! L( W来自 Glassnode 的链上数据亮点2,513 美元至 2,536 美元的区间是主要需求区域，该水平已积累超过 345 万 ETH，这标志着 ETH 成为数月来最强劲的支撑区之一。$ |7 D7 T" `" M7 p# o3 v7 X
) A) T+ ~! j* _' X有证据表明，现货 ETH ETF流入量急剧飙升7 月 3 日，该片上映票房达到 1.48 亿美元，创下近一个月以来单日最高纪录。
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* z6 j/ z5 n1 ~) C' t9 X事实上，7 月份 ETF 总流入量目前已达到 3 亿美元，凸显了现货需求的稳步增长。( _" k" M$ B0 U. j2 O9 l
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这种分歧很重要。
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- E$ D7 z8 C j2 T& ?' _* m5 B将阻力位转化为支撑位是收复高点的第一步。随着现货资金流入的增加，以太坊的预测似乎稳步迈向其 3000 美元的目标，并且随着第三季度的展开，以太坊可能还会进一步上涨。) y: b+ o* l# K0 E8 F' z
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