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P2E模式颓势难挽 如何设计出可持续发展的链游?
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随着大多数 P2E 经济体的崩溃,加上代币价格全面下跌 了60-90%,“游戏”将是加密货币用户增长的下一个阶段的观点受到了挑战。让我们来看看链游的机遇和当前结构存在的问题,以及未来如何建立可持续的游戏,吸引有机用户。 当前游戏的潜力根据 Take Two 的数据,全球电子游戏市场规模每年为 2350 亿美元( 2022 年)。其中主要是手机游戏,占总营收的 60%。 来源:TTWO最新投资者展示 现在有超过 30 亿活跃的电子游戏玩家(根据 TTWO 的数据),电子游戏已经成为世界上最大的娱乐形式之一。从纯市值的角度来看,主要游戏公司(例如腾讯、索尼、动视、任天堂、Roblox、EA、Take Two、万代、育碧)的总市值超过 7500 亿美元,基本上等于除稳定币外的加密货币市值。 与目前约 110 亿美元的游戏加密市场总市值相比,从规模/估值角度来看,至少有很大的潜力。 来源:Coinmarketcap 从纯用户增长的角度来看,30 亿的电子游戏月活跃用户略高于我们今天的链游的 87 万(比现在多 3400 倍)。为什么链游没有出现更爆炸性的增长?让我们来分析一下游戏目前存在的问题。 链游存在的问题首先,我认为许多人都忽视了的一点是与传统游戏相比,链游太贵了。“想要体验迷失在另一个世界”的玩家可以玩任何当前的在线传统游戏,并获得比在 Decentraland 中更好的体验。为了让链游得到广泛应用,设计者需要将更多的注意力放在游戏上,让游戏变得有趣,可持续地盈利,并创造一个留存率高的生态系统。 到目前为止,链游遇到问题主要集中在以下三个方面: 真正活跃的加密货币投资者受盈利而驱动,不强调游戏是否“有趣”,团队通过激励赚钱而不是游戏机制来解决问题,在这种结构下游戏制作也更容易; 大多数链游都没有传统游戏那么有趣和或让人上瘾; 大多数链游经济结构是不可持续的。
除了游戏不够有趣之外,大多数受欢迎的链戏所使用的核心模式也存在问题——边玩边赚。让我们以 AXS 为例(它曾是收入和市值最大的游戏代币)。用户可以购买一个 Axie(用于在游戏中战斗的 NFT 角色),或者他们可以使用 AXS(管理代币)+ SLP(游戏货币)来繁殖 Axie。玩家用 Axie 参与战斗并在获胜时获得 SLP。 从游戏经济的角度来看,当对 Axie 的需求高时→Axie 价格上涨→提高繁育(出售)Axie 的动机,进而提高 SLP + AXS 的价格。反过来说,如果对 Axie 的需求下降,SLP+AXS 也会随之下降。当新用户进入系统时,这种模式就会发挥作用,因为 Axie 的需求会持续上升(支持 SLP+AXS),而 NFT 销售额(AXS 赚取收入)也会上升(支持 AXS 的价格)。但这种情况下的收益高度依赖于新用户,与很多 DeFi |
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