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比特币1.9万美元真的便宜吗?评估它是否会进一步下跌
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萨尔瓦多总统纳伊卜·布克勒7月1日宣布,该国增加了80人比特币资产负债表上。他还指出,购买价格是每BTC 1.9万美元,他称这个价格水平很便宜。
许多其他加密支持者也有类似的观点,认为比特币目前处于折价状态。MicroStrategy是其中之一,该组织最近宣布购买价值约1000万美元的480 BTC。根据这些知名人士的说法,19000美元的价格水平代表着健康的折扣,这有多种原因。
目前的价格水平比其历史高点(ATH)低了80%以上。嗯,造成BTC在19,000美元便宜或折价的一个主要因素是大多数机构交易者在更高的价格水平买入。
比特币正在经历怎样的需求?
在最近的暴跌之后,比特币的价格一直徘徊在19,000美元上方。这证实了在经历了自6月26日以来的强大抛售压力后,它在这一价格水平附近找到了支撑。
在同一时期,有效地址的数量显著增加。然而,最新的统计数据显示,接收地址高于出售地址。
6月30日,比特币有699440个接收地址和631248个发送地址。这证实了更多的买家相信接近19,000美元的价格水平会吸引更多的买家而不是卖家。比特币在地址上的供应分布的类似观察进一步加强了这一观察。
持有1,000至10,000 BTC的地址的供应量从6月29日的26.43%增加到7月1日的26.5%。这个类别代表了通过供应控制比特币的最大鲸鱼支架。因此,该类别对价格表现产生了重大影响。
相比之下,持有1万至10万BTC的地址从6月29日的11.37%下降到7月1日的11.23%。持有超过10万BTC的地址在同一时期控制着4.08%的比特币供应量。
如果比特币失去19000美元的支持,可能会出现什么结果
尽管19,000美元的价格水平目前是一个强有力的支撑位,但不利的市场条件可能会引发更多的下跌。6月18日,当BTC跌至17,622美元时,就出现了这样的结果。由于买家利用了折扣,价格迅速反弹。然而,如果不利的市场条件持续下去,价格可能会下降。
如果比特币跌破19000美元,一个可能的结果是长时间的恐慌性抛售,这可能引发连锁效应。杠杆多头头寸的平仓也可能导致更多的下跌。另一种可能的情况是,随着投资者利用折价水平,投资者大量积累。
来源:金色财经 |
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