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冷风说币：19700生死线 今天能否守得住？2022.06.30
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市场消息
英国天空新闻援引消息人士称，英属维尔京群岛一家法院勒令著名的加密对冲基金巨头三箭资本（Three Arrows Capital）进行清算。
消息面上，随着大饼连续三天的回调，各种利空也出来了，先是大肆宣传美联储加息缩表将导致美丽国经济衰退，引发市场恐慌情绪，二是放出华尔街大资本准备做空Usdt的消息，释放整个币圈乌云压城，币市马上归零的感觉，现在，轮到倒霉悲催的三箭资本破产清算问题了。
三箭资本于2012年由联合创始人Zhu Su和凯尔·戴维斯（Kyle Davies）创建，是币圈最大的风险投资机构之一，这家最大的加密货币对冲基金一直以对比特币的看涨观点而闻名。
三箭资本是LUNA的领投机构之一，今年5月，Luna币价格暴跌近乎归零，使得三箭资本遭受了严重的损失。其实三箭资本的问题在本月早些时候开始出现，此前有报道，因为无法满足追加保证金的要求，加密货币贷方BlockFi和Genesis曾经就清算过三箭资本的部分头寸。
诡异之处就在于，大饼前几天大幅反弹突破21000美金拉至21886美金的时候，市场消息面一片利好，如今画风突变，唱衰之声又开始叫嚣尘上，消息面配合资本收割市场的迹象昭然若揭。
最后不得不说，三箭资本是近期“加密货币寒冬”中最大的受害者之一。最近几周，随着加密货币市场的崩溃，三箭资本面临着潜在的流动性和偿付能力问题，作为规模最大的加密货币对冲基金之一，三箭资本的清算还可能将引发对整个加密货币行业相关监管问题的担忧，对此，币友们应该给予高度关注。
行情分析
BTC短线支撑19800-20200美元，短线压力20800-21200美元。昨天晚上冷风就提醒大家大饼短线会有反弹，主要看二个位置，一看19800美元能不能守的住。二看20200美元能不能过得去。对于大饼下个月的走势，个人认为有二种可能走势，一是月收得好直接反弹，然后再震荡。二是月线收不好，先跌后反弹。先看今天收月线的。按照历史的走势在17500-25000区间肯定会震荡一段时间的，最高看到28000美元。大家对7-8月份的行情不要太悲观，但对眼前的走势不要太乐观。
ETH短线支撑1040-1080美元，短线压力1150-1200美元。以太下跌时表现的比大饼弱，有点山寨化的迹象，关键看980美元附近的支撑，大家暂时观望一下为好。主流币跟随大饼波动，按照大饼节奏操作。
山寨币三个原则，大饼稳，板块热，龙头强。冷风认为山寨币炒作有二点，一是大饼要稳。二是要抓住主线。冷风一再强调，存量资金搏弈，局部式行情，而这局部就是山寨币。今天大饼稳定性一般，建议多单轻仓小玩。
大饼:震荡，稳定性一般。以太下跌。
板块:DAO,Defi,公链生态
龙头:pp,comp,luna
操作性一般，小仓位操作，或者不操作。 来源：金色财经 |
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