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1. 宏观因素影响市场走势7 g l2 k8 ~- o' T0 S; j7 x
9 L0 `3 w! M( e. o6 d e; t$ Z/ Q过去一周市场涨跌主要受宏观经济数据影响,包括美国未来的降息预期、上周的非农数据和失业率,以及本周即将公布的PPI与CPI数据。0 F* s3 c% ^; z: W) Q6 P
, c% r7 J7 d1 G: C9 q5 APPI助推反弹:昨晚公布的PPI数据低于市场预期,被认为是近期少见的利好消息。PPI同比上涨3.3%(预期3.5%),核心PPI同比上涨3.5%(预期3.8%),这让市场信心得到了一定恢复。
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CPI才是关键:今晚的CPI数据更为重要,市场预期CPI同比为2.9%(前值2.7%),核心CPI预期为3.3%。如果数据能保持在预期或持平的水平,大饼(比特币)可能重回10万美元上方,并延续市场的炒作行情。
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5 j- f! ^* M+ q* |2. 比特币市场现状与未来预期2 M0 P; U3 q! `) c; Y; Q
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当前持仓成本: _, K1 ?$ h0 W8 n/ M2 {2 v. h
$ }4 @! j, q% ] x机构的平均持仓成本在8.1万美元左右;6 x9 e9 S. o1 g/ o4 I
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微策略因早期进场,平均成本约为6.2万美元;# B2 h; p) u2 u4 a+ N, x
0 e# |, n9 C0 v6 ]8 sETF持仓成本约在7万美元上下。
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2 Y0 L2 J8 N% |0 b) Y& q比特币价值回归:
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7 [, B( |. f1 w& l市场大部分散户的低价筹码已经交割完毕,当前持币主力成本价在6-8万美元区间。# \+ S V$ k( B, b0 |) I. I2 e# k
" i2 _' ~8 B) g B0 I5 H随着更多公司和国家效仿萨尔瓦多将比特币纳入战略储备,比特币的流通将越来越少,机构预测其价格有望达到15万甚至20万美元。
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加密资产的国家效应:萨尔瓦多因比特币政策而成为中美洲金融科技中心,吸引了像Tether这样的大型加密公司入驻。( T4 \4 \* L3 Y% \+ p6 R
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3. 市场热点与反弹情况
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- _$ m/ G) P0 D6 W0 vETH:4 D4 g9 l! _! R# ~* ?8 i
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虽然受到大量抛售的质疑,但以太坊价格总体稳定,汇率回升至0.033。9 z3 c7 Z! @$ c
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机构普遍认为以太坊本轮高点或达到1万美元。
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BTC:
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$ e& X) S# \/ n) [+ m8 X: a尽管ETF持续外流且贝莱德带头抛售,比特币依然维持强势。
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如果今晚CPI数据利好,突破10万美元可能性极大。
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) B; Q) {0 [0 y( e S1 D8 ASOL与XRP:: k0 ?* M" q! z( ^/ O( D% t
% n/ X; `" s3 C; _: f! R
SOL走势强劲,被认为是AI生态的主导者。摩根大通预计SOL与XRP的ETF即将推出,或吸引150亿美元资金入场。 L8 n; H: H( N) T9 }/ ^& U% T4 {$ b
* T' J% o3 g4 h1 @* I9 L0 ]7 dXRP走势超强,多次占据韩所榜首,有市场声音预测其价格达到10美元、市值超越以太坊。
3 g5 ]. k- n/ f/ L' F
7 d! ?0 Y" F3 x- ], L其他热点项目:5 Q8 Q; s4 \& t* z9 P, D7 H0 K
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涉及ETF或政策的项目如$hbar、$algo、$ada等走势同样强劲。
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0 C) p: M9 q+ c+ X山寨市场近期普遍上涨,市场预计Q1可能迎来牛市爆发。
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4. AI赛道与新兴项目
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9 X& @. k7 U) f' [6 \: dAI领域表现突出,板块总市值达160亿美元,近期涨幅明显。( _' G: |5 [1 y/ f) }( A3 M; w
- w0 ]2 q# f1 z) b4 z; {5 Q! a) [& i蓝筹项目:如$ai16z、$virtual和$aixbt等市值迅速攀升,部分实现翻倍增长。. M" ]) o' V: x7 `0 j
4 O6 G2 F/ r( }$ R6 q; f7 x新兴项目:正经团队推出的AI项目表现稳健,例如$mates和$sora已获得市场认可。* v; C W* G+ r& D. e& x# Q9 D& o
7 p" p' O6 L/ r6 E: L市场展望6 ]1 n) |2 W9 F `$ x4 N
: y: T$ ^8 b) w6 X; z" x随着宏观经济环境和政策明朗,加密市场有望迎来更多利好。山寨牛市或在第一季度爆发,AI、主流币、以及新兴应用赛道将继续成为市场焦点。
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