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[lastpost] => 2684952 狗狗币在看涨势头增加、灰度上市传闻的推动下上涨 10.23%（转） 1729264256 mattf
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区块链发展至现在，蓝筹和成长，这两种截然不同的投资取向引发了投资情绪的缠斗轨迹，当这种此消彼长的混沌态势随着年终的临近达至高潮时，加密市场也因它们的对决而变得更加扑朔迷离。 0 `% w0 O, ~" z1 i; V& o( y
比特币基金会主席布洛克·皮尔斯沮丧地将加密货币的崩溃与21世纪的互联网泡沫联系在了一起，许多科技公司在那一场浩劫当中灰飞烟灭，一些传统的科技巨头也元气大伤，不得不将位置让给新晋的竞争者们，比如现在的eBay、PayPal和亚马逊。显然比特币的投资者们仍然不甘心，但是现实已经给了他们沉重的一击。 . a3 K: b0 T. l- k% `
资产价格急剧上涨，投资者变富，对市场泡沫批判会变成 FOMO 的武器，而当泡沫破裂价格下跌时，各种看法接踵而至；之前唱空者的看法得到验证，众多亲历者也有更多时间讲自己的故事。 1 z6 {* n3 E6 p
5 f) n& ?/ O0 R3 ?, ]
加密货币可以赚大钱，但就连亿万富翁投资者也很容易上当受骗 1 l9 _! z7 h! l F1 e, a
不可能弄清楚加密货币及其不断变化的格局
, F4 J& @2 U4 y4 ~加密货币几乎还没有可靠的价值衡量标准，以至于加密货币的泡沫是不是即将破灭都很难判断 2 b* W4 k2 E! V+ t
即便泡沫通常是贬义，但有时候一定程度的泡沫会对世界带来正面影响。就好比一杯啤酒都是泡沫，那还叫啤酒吗？但是完全没有泡沫的啤酒，能是新鲜的啤酒吗？所以说，市场需要适量的泡沫，需要这些泡沫的润滑作用，小泡沫的成长对市场发展起到推动作用，大泡沫的破灭对市场发展起到一个警示的作用，泡沫至始至终都会存在的，既然近期市场在努力挤干净泡沫，我认为小的泡沫其实已经在孕育之中了。 G* s! d8 V5 m$ ]! K3 y
这也有助于解释为什么项目需要很长时间，好处不仅是可以获得有效回馈，也避免无效回馈。
( t n6 K( Z$ i* C% A& Y9 ]泡沫带来的反应
' P4 t% s. d: X1 q- H4 G: k& _: R7 \泡沫也有可能带来直接好处，或至少带来正面溢出效应：二十世纪九十年代的电信泡沫产生廉价光纤，当世界准备好迎接 YouTube，光纤就发挥了作用。即使房地产泡沫也有积极作用：带来住房库存。由于新房产非常标准化，可用很好以「iBuying」算法数据训练 — 低科技的泡沫造成高科技结果的稀有案例。但即便如此，大家对价格总是有个疑问：怎么识别何时市场过热？
. f5 M! s, T+ B, j6 Y对泡沫估值争论通常总结为框架问题。具体来说就是大概两种形式： 6 G) } T/ e5 x( `7 s5 F
趋势可以持续多久的问题：如果一个趋势转瞬即逝，{就像去年满天飞的链游}那么当前增长就只是暴跌前的一次起伏。电子商务股票 1999 年的走势很好看，Beanie Babies 的也是，需要进行判断才能确定哪些趋势会继续。但由于复合利率的力量，一个趋势只要比看上去持续那么一点点，带来的影响力会超乎寻常。
! T: [/ n6 [' N: ]9 B造福效应和连锁反应的问题：一个版块推出一件成功的产品，是否就意味着下件产品也会成功？去年AXS成功之后，掀起链游狂潮，只要是个玩赚游戏就会有人去玩，但是今年还有几个存活？
) p! q9 q+ {4 w7 D, r# W即便泡沫通常是贬义，但有时候一定程度的泡沫会对世界带来正面影响。就好比一杯啤酒都是泡沫，那还叫啤酒吗？但是完全没有泡沫的啤酒，能是新鲜的啤酒吗？所以说，市场需要适量的泡沫，需要这些泡沫的润滑作用，小泡沫的成长对市场发展起到推动作用，大泡沫的破灭对市场发展起到一个警示的作用，泡沫至始至终都会存在的，既然近期市场在努力挤干净泡沫，我认为小的泡沫其实已经在孕育之中了。 9 l1 D) n( a% Y I9 ^0 e
今天的分享就到这里，后期工种号团子财经会给大家带来其他赛道的龙头项目分析。感兴趣的可以点个关注。我也会不定期整理一些前沿咨询和项目点评，欢迎各位志同道合的币圈人一起来探索。 来源：金色财经 |
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