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更专注一级市场、公募、二级市场潜力币推荐,项目孵化的探究、暴涨山寨币,优质币种的挑选和做到更专业,提供海内外一级市场优质项目----区块链阿生 5 a& U0 W3 ^+ Z- _ k
近期,越来越多的加密货币价格出现暴跌,比特币价格半个月内就跌了近1万美元,最低跌至2.1万美元附近,以太坊价格则逼近1000美元关口,部分近两年才出现的加密货币如UST币甚至已经崩盘。据CoinGecko统计数据显示,全球加密货币总市值已跌破1万亿美元,为2021年1月以来首次。 ; o' J1 M( W5 P9 i* Z6 Y; Q+ _4 `
对此,业界普遍认为,肆虐的通胀引发了美国更加紧缩的货币政策,推动了加密货币价格的下滑。6月15日,美联储宣布加息75个基点,为1994年以来最大加息幅度。近期美国10年期国债收益率也一度逼近3.5%。美元当前仍然是全球主要的交易与流通货币,是全球风险资产的锚。美联储加息预期的提升意味着全球流动性快速收紧,带来全球风险资产价格的重估,以美国股市为主的全球风险资产价格近期均出现了较大幅度的下跌。加密货币作为一种高风险的金融资产,其价格大幅下跌就成了必然,而且,加密货币波动性显著高于其他资产,可以将其视为风险资产价格走势的先行指标。 " V6 L& R/ \6 s
其实,自加密货币诞生以来,对其属性的争议就一直不断,很多加密货币的创始人认为加密货币应用了区块链技术并实现了去中心化,具备流通和储备的功能,是一种不折不扣的货币。但这一论断显然禁不起认真推敲,因为现代货币的发行机制是经历了上百年才逐渐完备起来的,加密货币的出现不过才十余年。
. }6 \, N3 F. _通常而言,一国货币发行的基础在于其国债的偿付能力或者说是整体财政收入水平,财政收入越大该国货币的购买力就越强,反之该国货币的购买力就差。反观加密货币,其本身发行并没有相应的抵押物作为稳定其币值的有效支撑,仅仅是控制发行数量,即使是后续新涌现出的锚定一国法定货币的加密货币,其币值也没有对应机制来保证,只能靠不断出现的投资者购买来维持其币值。勉强算得上能稳定其币值的只能说是加密货币“挖矿”用电和购买设备所产生的成本了,但由于早期“生产”加密货币成本较低,一旦市场走势逆转,早期低成本持有者就会大量抛售,导致市场暴跌。 4 r9 C- a7 Y2 s
加密货币的市场表现也充分说明了这一点,以认可度相对较高的比特币为例,比特币的价格与美国10年期国债收益率呈现显著负相关关系。新冠肺炎疫情暴发以前比特币最高价格为1万美元,在美联储将实际利率降到零以下后,比特币价格呈现出突飞猛进的上涨态势,在2021年末最高曾上涨至67965美元。随着美联储加息预期的升温,比特币价格一直处于快速下降的趋势之中,当前价格较最高价已跌去70%。其他加密货币的走势基本与比特币相似,不同的是由于市场认可度低于比特币,很多加密货币的波动性较比特币而言则更强,在风口期可能上涨超万倍,而一旦风口过后则可能快速崩盘。
$ I" H m3 z# b事实上,近年来由于市场流动性格外宽松,叠加比特币大涨的带动效应,市场上各式各样的加密货币层出不穷,甚至还出现了基于加密货币的稳定币。简单说就是设计两种加密货币,一种加密货币与美元挂钩,另一种加密货币与前者挂钩,再设计一套兑换规则,以高昂的收益率吸引投资者进入。
5 |5 F3 z! `" b X' j, _) B以不久前刚刚崩盘的UST币与Luna币为例,设计者将UST币与美元挂钩,挂钩比例为1∶1,将Luna币与UST币挂钩,宣称投资者投资UST币可获得一年19.8%的固定利息收益。由于有较高的利息作为支撑,因此吸引了很多投资者,随着投资者的陆续进入,Luna币和UST币的价格水涨船高,当买入和持有UST币的收益与持有现实中的货币收益相等后,就意味着投资UST币将没有超额收益。更进一步分析,这个稳定币最根本的问题在于接近20%的超高收益率由谁来提供、如何维持,现实中设计团队其实一直是在烧钱和通过吸引新的投资者进入来维持这一高收益率,这其实也注定了这种稳定币的崩盘。
- E4 n- t' \4 _1 b# G! m& G, a从上述分析就可以看出,加密货币的根本属性并不是货币,只能称之为一种风险资产,其价格受现实世界货币的价值也就是利率的影响,且由于其发行没有等价抵押物,因此波动率高于其他风险资产,基于加密货币设计的稳定币因底层根基的设计缺陷甚至连风险资产都算不上,更像是庞氏骗局,未来各国一定会加大对加密货币的管控。投资大师巴菲特在很早的时候就对比特币的属性进行了清晰的判定,他认为比特币不仅没有任何价值,还会动摇政府的可信度,这也是全球很多国家禁止加密货币的原因。
: z; x# M" @: Z6 f4 P- l贝尔社区:群内不定时优质潜力币推荐,给出客观具体的行情分析,预测以供参考,最新的项目背景,项目解析,优质的海外一级项目渠道与公募平台打新,并与多个币圈头部达成战略合作,加入我们一起交流讨论! 来源:金色财经 |
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