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下一轮牛市会是一场冷牛市吗？
9 v1 b$ V5 h9 N: F: k: Y. Y' M' W借用ZZ语汇中“冷战”、“冷和平”描述一下加密市场，我们正在经历一波冷反弹，我们未来可能会在经历一场冷牛市
) b& h @) i& H1我们正在经历一波没有赚钱效应的冷反弹Old Money Love Old Coins（老钱爱老币）5 i5 p+ b3 w7 [- b s' ]9 }9 f+ l/ }
美国华尔街老钱们新开辟的自留地EDX交易所 ，上线且只上线了四个老币：BTC/ETH/BCH/LTC* l9 g" `3 e8 E$ L8 w( e
但它们气势如虹的反弹属于老钱，大多数新韭菜只有看热闹、喊加油的份儿
* W V9 r. M3 y$ W0 P; T而我们拥有且珍爱的L2治理币、DeFi治理币、Web3游戏治理币、CEX治理币，在被SEC重拳出击之后刚刚腰斩，到今天大多数还在底部震荡
9 e5 t, Q2 l0 P) ]& T5 Q6 W) @4 w% w( m在流动性没有实质改善的情况下，每次反弹都是以BTC为首的加密核心资产对加密风险资产的一次吸血1 p( e9 W/ q2 I! C" L% D. s; ^
预计这次反弹也不例外) f, @+ ^* @- H2 \/ u' I9 H8 P& `
2我们可能会经历一场没有大的财富效应的冷牛市上一轮牛市，是美联储货币政策周期（降息至0+QE放水）+美国经济周期（衰退==>复苏==>过热）+Gartner新兴技术成长曲线（DeFi、NFT进入大规模采用期）+BTC减半周期等等诸周期正向共振的结果
% N+ x+ n- B& H8 z/ Z4 T) @9 `- J而站在我们当下，美联储货币政策周期（还要加息2次+QT回收流动性）+美国经济周期（过热==>温和衰退）+Gartner新兴技术成长曲线（新叙事与新叙事之间青黄不接）+BTC减半周期（减半效应边际递减），
: b+ Z$ r x9 y5 g# M$ w在这样的诸周期共振下，预计下一轮牛市可能没有上一轮牛市那么烈火烹油、鲜花着锦般的绚烂热闹，很可能不会出现类似上一轮牛市DeFi和NFT项目们批量制造百万富翁的财富效应. d* }* R m! U2 l
当然，如果在23年下半年或者24年上半年发生黑天鹅，美联储再次急速降息至0+量化宽松+财政大撒币来放水，那就又是另一番景象了
; ^5 X! l. F5 o# u3冷反弹与冷牛市中的个人交易策略冷牛市，并不意味着加密世界西部冒险时代的结束，更不等于说散户再也没有财富机会3 D9 _0 k5 w u7 t+ @) \$ W! V7 w; v
只是我们需要稍微调整一下交易思路，从热衷发掘百倍币、万倍币等Alpha收益机会，调整为努力保持住Beta收益+复利思维) l1 I# I7 Y7 U. f! ]( Q+ T
冷反弹与冷牛市意味着波动率的衰减，也意味着中性策略春天的到来
; q- V2 Z2 o9 Y( z( N7 T既不做多，也不做空，也不波段。而是，坚持以币本位为原则，努力囤积更多的币圈核心资产：BTC、ETH、Uniswap V3 WBTC-WETH LP、GLP等等
' U4 \5 F4 ^1 F7 Y% h0 g. @不过如果你觉得中性策略枯燥且无聊的话，可以试试数学期望为正的投资方向，比如撸毛、Web3游戏打金、MEV机器人套利、百U冲MeMe币或土狗等等
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