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[lastpost] => 2688266 特朗普誓言结束哈里斯对加密货币的战争，庆祝比特币白皮书的第16个B日（转） 1730477348 小钱儿
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[虚拟币交流]
挖矿报告：比特币减半后要涨到10万美元大型矿企才能避免亏损（转载）
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比特币下一次区块奖励减半已不足350天，减半效应什么时候会开始发挥影响力、历史
5 z8 l/ l6 Y( Z0 Y& O- l1 {( w真的能重演吗？一直是投资者关注的焦点。不过近日一份矿企研究报告引发了讨论。
/ n4 p* ~5 y( W/ g并不看好Riot Platforms等上市矿企证券的前景( a! L' d1 P) x9 o4 U
近日，一份发布在Seeking Alpha的报告原文指出，虽然比特币近期于$30,000区间持续盘整，但以Riot
8 h+ X( [9 @5 O" kPlatforms为首的上市矿业公司的股价却迎来了超50%的涨幅。
# S' U6 X2 u+ i; c2 x0 R9 t但与此同时，报告以Riot Platforms为例指出，虽然市场预测该公司挖矿算力将在2024年增加两倍，但研究员认$ j: Q8 e. u0 `# U: T
为，矿工们也很可能因区块奖励减半而面临严重营运压力。(能获得的奖励从6.25变成3.125枚新BTC)
& ~, e/ W7 I8 b就算像Riot这样的矿企可以依靠发行新股来维持营运，但这将稀释现存股票的价值，使股票的基本面收到损害， Q( ^) p3 T% x, B' O$ v" e! t
因此，研究员并不看好这些矿企证券在比特币减半后的价格走势。
" q3 t6 W1 [3 E, _% f矿企维持当前估值，比特币须涨至约10万美元
* q$ R: s$ S$ n& k9 M( D" I据报告进一步说明，为了让矿企维持当前稍高的估值水平，分析师认为这在比特币区块奖励减半后可能需要待比+ U$ G/ @0 G; R4 e
特币到达9.8万美元才能实现：除非比特币的表现远超我们的数据模型，否则我们认为比特币行业不可能毫发无
2 y6 ?: G- `5 c# q B/ W2 |伤。即便Riot雄心勃勃地表明他们的算力将到达35EH/s，我们的模型也表明比特币的交易价格须高于98,000美元+ F1 W9 Z. j4 [+ Q k' w$ s f
才能表明Riot目前的估值在减半后是合理的。
9 w7 m5 H) S2 C# g/ U% e综上所述，报告还警告用户持有比特币矿企的股票风险极高，认为目前的基本面并无法匹配当前估值——而这还
/ T" x& X& S8 Z( }+ R. [7 H+ q- X是没有考虑明年比特币区块奖励减半的情况下。0 w( K3 P: L& ^3 Z- F
) [. \! m) r- B" Z8 t U
* r& ?+ s# f$ Y& V6 d8 X: B1 s3 I
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