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[虚拟币交流]
比特币下跌,黄金触顶——但 Uptober 尚未结束(转)
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今年十月已经测试了比特币的[BTC]信徒。在通常被称为“Uptober”的月份过半时,BTC 发现自己处于陌生的境地,遭遇了历史上最糟糕的月中表现之一。
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: Y: H T, o8 T4 m. b* x1 O2 }但你看不到的是,比特币收盘上涨的可能性仍然很大,罕见的BTC-黄金图表细节也表明可能已经触底。# z; v8 m4 M% k* S2 a
* u+ U( N. B/ l$ a+ T+ uUptober 能否如期实现目标,还是说这将是它的终结?
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1 S' S9 T9 h% _: @0 _1 p) x1 i( S开局艰难,但历史看好牛市
+ c9 R8 m& y# O4 Y& v6 I( C1 m" n R2025 年 10 月已经赢得了比特币十月份表现为有记录以来第二糟糕。对于通常看涨的月份来说,这是一个令人惊讶的转折。# d: N# z) j" Q [& z
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来源:Alphractal
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15年来,只有四个10月份收盘下跌。但鉴于比特币最终上涨的可能性高达73%,胜算仍然对比特币有利。
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3 `0 K' G/ {0 A4 V1 u# M尽管开局不稳,但许多人相信本月结束前可能会转为看涨,保持这种势头。0 y- N. M, n; v7 t$ {8 `
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事情变得有趣了
, c3 h8 S* r, S4 R; w. hBTC/黄金比率中罕见的信号表明形势可能很快就会发生转变。
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来源:X( q7 ~9 H6 v% v2 A9 n
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根据最近的数据,该比率已达到迄今为止仅在主要市场底部出现的水平,而这些时刻往往是从黄金转向比特币的最佳时机。
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: Z9 r1 b8 t2 U- \- q. ^BTC/黄金震荡指标徘徊在-1.8左右,从历史上看,这与BTC开始跑赢黄金的周期低点相关。4 O% u- y" c. ?& Q7 x5 v. ]
0 i# { p% H4 ?6 }; C! ~1 o正如 Alphractal 首席执行官 Joao Wedson 所说,该图表“基本上是在大声疾呼”现在是“出售黄金、购买比特币的时候了”。) |' ]% Z* X( A1 q6 e$ d
/ B& I/ X6 d( M" \随着黄金价格处于高位,而比特币出现触底信号,风险回报方程现在可能更倾向于加密货币,而不是传统的避风港。
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, M9 S6 v2 P& @5 E: C5 v' t& F ]空头在 10.7 万美元附近失去动力8 G! I* z! o+ P% j, ^2 F
经过几天的持续抛售,截至发稿时,比特币似乎稳定在 107,000 美元左右。+ O: [0 z' r- K# ?4 {
' M6 w Y- \6 H F+ H. \2 }! ~; e来源:TradingView
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日线图显示看跌势头减弱,RSI 指标显示 BTC 处于超卖区域。与此同时,MACD 图柱趋于平缓;如果买盘活跃,则可能出现动能逆转。& ?$ `" K4 s9 Y. _% @4 F6 q+ X$ ], |# g
+ R- V# Q) E1 i+ y" N' P7 J5 \5 n! u然而,BTC 的交易价格仍然低于关键 EMA(20、50、100),整体趋势仍看跌。) S: L9 Q# b9 F) f0 p
/ N* H, v0 t$ \: {7 a突破 110,000 美元的决定性举措可能确认复苏,但在此之前,有点乐观永远不会伤害任何人。+ H- x, C! Z7 H8 R
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十月才过一半别急着下结论,比特币这货向来爱搞幺蛾子 |
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这波跌得挺狠,但老韭菜都懂,Uptober还没完呢 |
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