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[lastpost] => 2690533 FTX 起诉币安与赵长鹏CZ,索回「18亿美元」股票回购款,到底发生了什么? 1731545020 天策-菱玖
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0 \9 `3 N( y; }' M近日,贝莱德、Bitwise、ARK等正向SEC申请比特币现货ETF的消息,促使BTC和灰度的GBTC价格大涨。如果比特币ETF被批准通过,将为加密市场带来更多的流量和资金。相比GBTC,ETF流动性、价格铆钉会更好,也会更受市场欢迎。预计在今年下半年或明年年初,会有比特币ETF被批准上市,叠加降息预期,加密市场也将迎来繁荣。1 I, [# a$ V' v
4 Y9 z3 F; ]3 @5 Q" e6 L$ ]2 }贝莱德上周提出推出现货比特币ETF的计划引起市场轰动。接着,加密货币资产管理公司Bitwise重新递交了修改规则,以适应其比特币现货ETF计划。目前有传闻称,全球第三大资产管理公司富达正在考虑收购Grayscale(灰度)或申请比特币现货ETF。这些消息均促使BTC和GBTC价格大幅上扬。
$ U9 t8 j. S5 n: s5 L4 l# K6 ^# N, h! s
ETF和灰度GBTC是什么,有何区别?9 ]% V4 C7 h; ^3 `" _, z
1 a; Y( J0 B1 ?' j6 V( t; kETF和GBTC(Grayscale Bitcoin Trust)是两种不同的投资工具。4 Q/ ^; F+ p4 g* ?4 \ R/ p
2 P6 j, s- A. ~; u8 K) [5 d; W ETF(Exchange-Traded Fund)是一种交易所交易基金,它可以像股票一样在交易所上市交易。ETF的基金份额代表着一篮子股票、债券、商品或其他资产,旨在追踪特定指数的表现。ETF的价格通常与其基础指数紧密关联,投资者可以通过买入或卖出ETF份额来获取对底层资产组合的投资。
3 {5 D0 U3 Q1 N, v* n/ @% h; @& } GBTC是一种加密货币投资信托,由Grayscale公司发行。GBTC旨在跟踪比特币的价格表现,但它的结构不同于传统的ETF。GBTC的持有者无法直接赎回其持有的比特币,而是持有GBTC的份额,代表着相应比例的比特币。此外,GBTC的供应量是有限的,投资者需要在二级市场上销售其持股来获得流动性。( k6 w* l% k1 @0 m
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关键区别:& X( W# R) Q2 z# K- ~
. Y% C* y( O5 J, m+ F0 i3 m ETF可以随时进行买卖并与基础指数价格紧密关联,而GBTC的流动性相对较差且仅能在二级市场上进行交易。. G% v8 f" Q6 c. v
ETF的份额直接代表投资者在基础指数的持仓,而GBTC的份额代表持有者对比特币的间接权益。/ ~5 C% n2 M( l
ETF的费用通常较低,而GBTC则有管理费用和溢价(GBTC的交易价格可能高于持有的比特币净资产值)。
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( n! K$ H$ u# ~+ u传统金融巨头申请ETF的影响; s$ X/ D: X% E! s/ ^* e
/ I1 [/ c' p- s( o' I$ v. Q T$ j# H预计在贝莱德和Bitwise提交申请后,更多机构将加入现货比特币ETF的竞争。$ E6 I$ C; T4 a# p+ l
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今年4月,Ark Invest和21Shares重新申请其现货比特币ETF。随后,Wisdomtree和Invesco(景顺)也在6月21日重新提交了现货比特币ETF的申请。据彭博分析师报道,之前已经申请过比特币现货ETF的其他机构,如VanEck、Valkyrie和Global X,也可能会重新申请。这些机构采取新的策略或看到SEC批准的可能性增加,成为市场上最早推出的ETF之一非常重要,因此出现大量申请是很常见的现象。4 I3 v/ @( F& V/ k- A* v& x* Q
% r3 t+ L* n+ L1 W, V9 v) hETF如果申请通过,传统机构和散户就有了更方便的渠道投资BTC,预计会有大量场外资金入局,推动BTC的价格;如果不通过,在牛市来临之际,GBTC仍然是普通散户投资BTC的重要渠道,则GBTC相对BTC会有长时间的溢价。
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?6 g6 l8 d* A当溢价出现,GBTC有哪些套利机会呢?
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当前常见的GBTC套利模式有四种,现金借贷套利、实物借贷套利、份额借贷套利和锁定溢价套利:
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现金借贷套利:投资者使用现金或比特币购买GBTC份额,并在6个月锁仓期后在二级市场售出。但需要注意比特币价格下跌会带来较大风险,只有当GBTC价格高于初始成本时才有可能盈利。% g: I2 K3 l' ]
实物借贷套利:机构投资者从借贷平台借入比特币,将其交给灰度置换为一级市场份额。过了6个月锁仓期后,再根据时机出售份额,同时用获得的现金购买比特币还给借贷平台。套利利润等于卖出溢价收益减去利息和其他费用。
# P' U9 a/ ^1 R J) F$ K$ P GBTC份额借贷套利:投资者直接借入GBTC份额,在二级市场适时售出。同时使用现金或比特币购买GBTC份额以还清借入的GBTC份额。这种套利方式包括GBTC的借贷成本和2%的托管费用。只有当GBTC溢价收益超过这两个费用之和时才可能盈利。
5 Q/ k2 S3 z& A1 U$ W' Z* R 锁定溢价套利:投资者使用现金或比特币购买GBTC份额,并在GBTC市价高于资产净值时利用场外交易借入GBTC并进行空头交易。无论GBTC价格上涨还是下跌,利润是固定的。套利收益为溢价减去借贷成本和托管费之和。
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这些套利策略需要谨慎对待,因为市场条件和费用可能会对套利收益产生影响。投资者在执行这些策略时应充分了解相关风险,并根据自身的投资能力和市场观察做出决策。8 w5 U$ D% ^! v, C
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总之,比特币ETF将为加密市场带来更多的流量和资金,相比GBTC,流动性、价格铆钉会更好,也会更受市场欢迎。预计在今年下半年或明年年初,会有比特币ETF被批准上市,叠加降息预期,加密市场也将迎来繁荣。 |
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