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[lastpost] => 2691305 模因币总市值突破1110亿美元！新一代“投票即赚”（V2E）Flockerz 预售筹集150万美... 1731592860 DBSD
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[虚拟币交流]
挖矿报告：比特币减半后要涨到10万美元大型矿企才能避免亏损（转载）
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比特币下一次区块奖励减半已不足350天，减半效应什么时候会开始发挥影响力、历史
( k! K+ C3 N0 R6 \" ?0 ?真的能重演吗？一直是投资者关注的焦点。不过近日一份矿企研究报告引发了讨论。/ u; Q; e4 X- F
并不看好Riot Platforms等上市矿企证券的前景
' y6 t |) s, B9 M& b近日，一份发布在Seeking Alpha的报告原文指出，虽然比特币近期于$30,000区间持续盘整，但以Riot/ \4 L+ a$ }/ B u! M: U0 b7 K) [
Platforms为首的上市矿业公司的股价却迎来了超50%的涨幅。' v" i% X- C2 C" p
但与此同时，报告以Riot Platforms为例指出，虽然市场预测该公司挖矿算力将在2024年增加两倍，但研究员认, o, @* W3 x* ^' J
为，矿工们也很可能因区块奖励减半而面临严重营运压力。(能获得的奖励从6.25变成3.125枚新BTC)4 X) _/ i* _6 e+ b Q6 F
就算像Riot这样的矿企可以依靠发行新股来维持营运，但这将稀释现存股票的价值，使股票的基本面收到损害，
. a( C. x3 x6 _' K- r6 P因此，研究员并不看好这些矿企证券在比特币减半后的价格走势。2 P* I: S. d2 E9 J( W
矿企维持当前估值，比特币须涨至约10万美元% q) d% k( ~ Y0 M
据报告进一步说明，为了让矿企维持当前稍高的估值水平，分析师认为这在比特币区块奖励减半后可能需要待比
, D" N. h6 L' N( `特币到达9.8万美元才能实现：除非比特币的表现远超我们的数据模型，否则我们认为比特币行业不可能毫发无
! k& c+ s% M/ Z8 Z+ T# x) n& T4 I0 L) I伤。即便Riot雄心勃勃地表明他们的算力将到达35EH/s，我们的模型也表明比特币的交易价格须高于98,000美元
# |# q; Y/ ^, t$ X0 i; V) u, t4 i& r才能表明Riot目前的估值在减半后是合理的。
, K! o" }/ P8 x, J7 }+ j7 h; F% ] L综上所述，报告还警告用户持有比特币矿企的股票风险极高，认为目前的基本面并无法匹配当前估值——而这还* k8 p9 z, e1 p- H3 G! O8 [
是没有考虑明年比特币区块奖励减半的情况下。
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