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[虚拟币交流]
比特币仍面临风险：Brandt警告称，最近的反弹并没有打破熊市结构（转）
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资深交易员Peter Brandt最近强调，最新的比特币反弹未能扭转较低高点和较低低点的长期看跌结构。0 B5 O" r& ~" S' _
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尽管有短暂的激增，勃兰特指出比特币仍未突破确认趋势逆转所需的水平。据他介绍，只有当比特币能够收于71000美元以上并创下历史新高时，才会出现重大的看涨转变。. i1 {- @: p2 w7 u- f
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随附的图表显示，BTC已经连续七个多月处于下降趋势。这种模式具有较低的高点和较低的低点，这是持续看跌情绪的信号 ；. V( ] B! X2 c! h$ r+ \/ F
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比特币阻力位值得关注
/ U0 x* k2 W9 B. bBrandt在周线图上确定了两个主要阻力位比特币价格一直无法超越。第一个阻力位在70602美元左右，而第二个阻力位更高，位于73808美元，是目前的历史最高点。+ I4 D1 D& W! Z
4 @- G$ c3 v6 N t4 h比特币1W图表|彼得·勃兰特
3 B; c3 A" {+ p, b; T. H! H; a. \这些水平是阻碍比特币上涨势头的主要障碍，多次阻止了比特币的上涨。如果不突破这些水平，市场可能会继续处于巩固阶段。
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1 \: e7 _, e, ^ E) WBrandt强调，虽然最近的反弹带来了一些希望，但它并没有扰乱几个月来定义比特币价格走势的较低高点序列 ；
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他认为，只有比特币才会出现真正的势头逆转突破71000美元并确认ATH。这位市场资深人士表示，除此之外的任何举措都只是当前看跌框架内的另一个举措。& k$ Q2 E* X, v j$ B: ]8 Q( B0 F
2 Y. E: _' Z4 Q3 _: [1 XBTC MA建议谨慎
8 z6 P! x. n1 C此外，目前约为60526美元的8周简单移动平均线（SMA）可作为支撑。比特币的价格一直徘徊在这个移动平均线附近，表明缺乏明确的方向 ；/ b* N8 h; i5 f, q1 a* j
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同时，波动根据平均真实范围（ATR）的测量，其变化仍然适中。5756的ATR值表明，虽然市场仍有能力大幅波动，但尚未达到极端的波动水平 ；4 T6 d& U4 J1 d
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更广阔的市场前景% B2 _: R; ]& m. C2 C
根据Brandt的分析，图表专家Willy Woo同意比特币的中期结构仍然看跌。然而，吴表示乐观，市场正逐渐从中性转向看涨 ；
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他补充说，虽然比特币最终可能会达到历史新高，但这可能需要时间。吴预测，在下一次重大看涨尝试之前，未来一到三周将出现冷静期 ；
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中期结构是看跌走向中性，并试图看涨。ATH需要时间。" g6 W' h; e% L* [$ f1 y4 C4 `* @
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短期结构表明，在下一次看涨尝试之前，1-3周的时间会停下来冷静下来。, a7 o1 \* f$ w H$ b
( k; J4 I" c1 H6 |0 p5 t我认为我们不会在10月、11月和12月举办激光眼派对。# |: h' V7 E4 c, Z( |
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长期…
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b6 H Z# O0 \' M/ t& l1 y* y--吴宇森（@woonomic）2024年10月2日5 x* p, ?' e4 \5 G2 S7 F
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' N6 M$ O7 s% T) `" U7 ~( w3 p他驳斥了一个强大的想法十月集会相反，这表明市场可能会横盘整理，然后在年底前经历更强劲的上涨趋势。) r* ^/ {4 n( o, y3 I
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作为回应，勃兰特评论道当足够多的人采用“激光眼”趋势时——这是一种象征加密货币社区看涨情绪的模因——它往往预示着看跌的市场趋势。 R, K7 T2 ~( J0 z' y H! O
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有趣的是，资深分析师本杰明·考恩最近在另一项分析中证实Bitcoin与整个社区的“只上涨”情绪相反，本月也将出现可观察到的下跌。这与吴的披露相一致，并倾向于勃兰特报告的方向。
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只是为了提供一个不同的视角来考虑，而不是这个平台上主要共享的“仅向上”视角，2019年，#BTC在第一次降息后上涨了2周，然后在2个月后降至100W SMA，相当于11月中旬。pic.twitter.com/ogicF89JrM
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--本杰明·考恩（@intocryptoverse）2024年10月2日2 S1 z4 m( s& ?2 n( W
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) ^( ]; q' G, L$ O% F/ k% g, x与此同时，比特币在9月28日达到66508美元的2个月峰值后，连续三天下跌。BTC昨日短暂重新测试了6万美元的区域，然后在发稿时反弹至61395美元。
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