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[虚拟币交流]
比特币仍面临风险：Brandt警告称，最近的反弹并没有打破熊市结构（转）
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资深交易员Peter Brandt最近强调，最新的比特币反弹未能扭转较低高点和较低低点的长期看跌结构。
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尽管有短暂的激增，勃兰特指出比特币仍未突破确认趋势逆转所需的水平。据他介绍，只有当比特币能够收于71000美元以上并创下历史新高时，才会出现重大的看涨转变。
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$ u. W( @: P7 [- j! ]随附的图表显示，BTC已经连续七个多月处于下降趋势。这种模式具有较低的高点和较低的低点，这是持续看跌情绪的信号 ；
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9 {! P$ w* t1 e比特币阻力位值得关注
4 P* B* P8 K4 ^$ _6 UBrandt在周线图上确定了两个主要阻力位比特币价格一直无法超越。第一个阻力位在70602美元左右，而第二个阻力位更高，位于73808美元，是目前的历史最高点。& b5 N; @9 A- h& J
; E" I0 Z) j6 P. {6 F比特币1W图表|彼得·勃兰特
# A" U6 J3 j% t* D4 K. ]% s+ j0 |这些水平是阻碍比特币上涨势头的主要障碍，多次阻止了比特币的上涨。如果不突破这些水平，市场可能会继续处于巩固阶段。0 }7 F6 Y9 S% \1 B3 \* Y
! H; L) B, i6 |) w9 r. DBrandt强调，虽然最近的反弹带来了一些希望，但它并没有扰乱几个月来定义比特币价格走势的较低高点序列 ；: g0 U1 R8 \) m( ]" n9 B( D
/ F! z% V4 _2 T% O1 n4 N他认为，只有比特币才会出现真正的势头逆转突破71000美元并确认ATH。这位市场资深人士表示，除此之外的任何举措都只是当前看跌框架内的另一个举措。
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- j6 C; \' y G9 y" W. Q* R2 w& vBTC MA建议谨慎* @9 D/ f5 T+ c8 h- D/ Q* K
此外，目前约为60526美元的8周简单移动平均线（SMA）可作为支撑。比特币的价格一直徘徊在这个移动平均线附近，表明缺乏明确的方向 ；
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同时，波动根据平均真实范围（ATR）的测量，其变化仍然适中。5756的ATR值表明，虽然市场仍有能力大幅波动，但尚未达到极端的波动水平 ； |7 Z" e% \2 P4 L, K
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更广阔的市场前景' m/ e2 N7 R( M% O# _! y9 @
根据Brandt的分析，图表专家Willy Woo同意比特币的中期结构仍然看跌。然而，吴表示乐观，市场正逐渐从中性转向看涨 ；
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3 E3 \' o2 m8 {( A# U他补充说，虽然比特币最终可能会达到历史新高，但这可能需要时间。吴预测，在下一次重大看涨尝试之前，未来一到三周将出现冷静期 ；
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* B3 n- Z0 T( Y% i中期结构是看跌走向中性，并试图看涨。ATH需要时间。
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短期结构表明，在下一次看涨尝试之前，1-3周的时间会停下来冷静下来。3 J0 W* U( H- `7 o! L
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我认为我们不会在10月、11月和12月举办激光眼派对。- U: w5 p+ F7 Z! j: k
0 ~' E6 A' b3 g; C长期…1 u3 n; `% J3 y3 P( D X
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--吴宇森（@woonomic）2024年10月2日2 p( ?" u, C Y! k' H* o
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/ g' }8 ?1 p' H2 r% J9 i' K他驳斥了一个强大的想法十月集会相反，这表明市场可能会横盘整理，然后在年底前经历更强劲的上涨趋势。* c* {9 A/ t7 a
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作为回应，勃兰特评论道当足够多的人采用“激光眼”趋势时——这是一种象征加密货币社区看涨情绪的模因——它往往预示着看跌的市场趋势。4 k9 D& K: p8 ^ J, `- ?" S
# W0 s* k/ R" U; f- e7 O有趣的是，资深分析师本杰明·考恩最近在另一项分析中证实Bitcoin与整个社区的“只上涨”情绪相反，本月也将出现可观察到的下跌。这与吴的披露相一致，并倾向于勃兰特报告的方向。$ |* D# Y5 X3 W+ R
/ Q+ M6 I6 G% r只是为了提供一个不同的视角来考虑，而不是这个平台上主要共享的“仅向上”视角，2019年，#BTC在第一次降息后上涨了2周，然后在2个月后降至100W SMA，相当于11月中旬。pic.twitter.com/ogicF89JrM
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--本杰明·考恩（@intocryptoverse）2024年10月2日
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与此同时，比特币在9月28日达到66508美元的2个月峰值后，连续三天下跌。BTC昨日短暂重新测试了6万美元的区域，然后在发稿时反弹至61395美元。# @# A/ t0 z5 k3 } l9 p
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