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当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 7332 小时
本月在线: 27 小时
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STH已记录了70亿美元已实现的损失,这是本周期中最多的
8 C" X: H+ z) b% N7 ^比特币价格仍在关键的移动平均值下,短期持有人行为对近期趋势方向至关重要
! K2 r. v2 |* w短期比特币[BTC]持有人会感觉到热量是未实现的损失安装,这标志着这个市场周期中的关键拐点。但是,尽管有所有压力,历史表明这可能是更广泛的牛趋势中的自然冷却阶段。
# z& ?/ P8 g7 }( f- t2 R% ?& D4 i! p. ~! R* E" `
比特币损失爬升,但保持在历史范围内
. n, } U6 ?4 [* ]9 [实际上,来自玻璃节点显示短期持有人[STH]的相对未实现的损失可能接近+2标准偏差水平 - 这是与峰值遇险有关的阈值。1 s( Z! s* w$ t0 J
" i$ m9 a- y% W然而,它们仍然保持在牛市中通常看到的上限范围内,尚未违反投降领域。
7 [1 B6 T: l! I* n* _; S! B7 K! Q% X, |) I
STH痛苦的新闻时间水平似乎也是值得注意的,在过去的30天中,已实现的损失超过70亿美元。 " j% c2 x2 K1 Z2 ] |0 H( d2 _
; |8 _3 R }, L4 A7 z尽管这一数字是当前周期中最高的损失事件,但在2021年5月和2022年6月的重大逐渐减值期间,它显着低于惊人的198亿美元和207亿美元的损失。
N8 e1 d# m, d" u% I$ i! |8 L
9 g8 V1 m" U% l这意味着,尽管损失一直在增加,但许多投资者仍在极端投降之前退出。换句话说,短期持有人可能会陷入适度的损失,而不是忍受更深层的缩减,这可能是更广泛的市场实力的可能迹象。
( F1 p% [( C: ?6 D$ L: G9 k2 R7 w" G, s
比特币价格结构和风险区域& W/ X: k- A f: Q2 |: n
发稿时,比特币的交易价格为84,322美元,加密货币徘徊在其50天的搬家平均水平低于85,141美元以下,远低于200天移动平均线,为95,174美元。
( H9 V& s' t3 r% Z
' u E- U. Z! [4 F! g, g这些水平形成关键阻力区,并可能继续抑制向上的动量。尤其是如果短期持有人的情绪仍然弱。
4 Z2 ?) m; x! n( D% H% s( \7 q
4 n& h8 k# v6 x3 v9 @) f. \布林乐队还强调了一个紧缩范围,暗示可能突破了。
# q) C) P2 Z2 f0 H7 r; \
: I, s) ]$ F- ^8 p( j& F* h但是,由于短期持有人在压力下,除非新需求进入市场,否则偏见可能会倾斜看跌。 T/ \, U; w# F1 N4 v1 f5 v8 x) @
7 p/ {2 h3 T: ^: \8 J' [, Y2 t这对比特币趋势意味着什么/ y8 A7 D, y' B
未实现的损失和已实现的损失的结合表明风险升高,特别是对于那些持有的人比特币在最近的高点获得。但是,这些损失仍然存在于历史牛市模式之内,这表明尚未确认宏逆转。/ Q2 |/ r7 [. s/ Q9 c& q6 H- L
# M- N& f, l% [+ H* ^
如果BTC可以收回85,000美元的级别并将其倒入支持,则可以在STH中更新信心。相反,如果不持有83,000美元,可能会导致更多销售,同时测试较低的支撑量接近80,000美元。
8 |, J* @( E9 P7 q0 i' a" L. p) p4 H* I
9 B4 e- d! C1 E7 M9 b0 @! F- j0 g总体而言,短期疼痛是显而易见的,但尚不极端。只要比特币的心理水平高于关键的心理水平和宏流程保持完整,这种校正就可以作为重置而不是逆转。* C6 r b4 u: o0 ]; T. T" Y0 e
+ u/ i/ k' M4 m' l( I% |
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当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 13591 小时
本月在线: 42 小时
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当前离线
经验:
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活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 19526 小时
本月在线: 52 小时
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当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 9038 小时
本月在线: 24 小时
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当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 3003 小时
本月在线: 23 小时
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当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 10354 小时
本月在线: 25 小时
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