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[虚拟币交流]
比特币市场的下一步走势——关注这些矿工信号寻找线索（转）
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比特币市场感觉处于强势与犹豫之间。
& N2 E$ | k4 a矿业公司刚刚创下了减半后最好的一个月业绩，5 月份收入达 15.2 亿美元。
& c" A$ t8 e5 d, K' O, y. f$ a! t* }这 比特币[BTC]市场感觉像是陷入了困境。! V+ S) Z) W4 T" N o5 L6 E
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价格虽然强劲，但势头却令人信服。感觉比特币只需一次波动，就可能抹去5月份的所有涨幅，跌回六位数以下。
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! h! [# `$ J7 J, \ ~3 d6 d风险如此之大，谨慎行事似乎是最明智的做法。但与更广泛的比特币市场不同，有一个行业利润丰厚——矿工。他们的生产成本远低于比特币当前价格，这为他们带来了巨额利润。
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* ~7 a; F' a+ u9 S1 U* f1 i从历史上看，矿业股在面临压力时总是能迅速锁定收益。那么，在市场观望的同时，我们是否应该更加密切地关注矿业股？5 A; n' K9 T! O2 Z5 h5 `
$ C2 @8 c4 V( [1 J; F3 c减半后的挖矿经济
+ v t$ B9 O% [* {2024 年 4 月减半之后，矿工的奖励一夜之间从 6.25 BTC 降至 3.125 BTC，这给他们带来了沉重打击。/ ]- t- @' _2 F/ W
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问题是，虽然奖励每四年减半，但挖矿成本却并没有降低。你消耗的电力和支付的电费都一样，但每个区块的收益却只有一半。7 v$ s/ j1 K1 t9 h
! G8 w- ?! Y, g. @, G' [自然，这导致平均采矿成本飙升。
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到4月底，比特币价格飙升至每BTC约9万美元，而其价格却顽固地徘徊在6万美元附近。这种不匹配导致了比特币市场陷入了横盘整理的恶性循环，市场陷入了窄幅震荡。
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4 _, z; v/ w! \. j6 a为什么？因为减半后发生的事情是典型的矿工策略：储备枯竭，比特币市场陷入低迷，矿工收入开始减少。% @6 J4 J2 s: f) l9 g U
) j$ }3 f& W5 L换句话说，不断增加的压力迫使矿工在其利润率（BTC 的现货价格 - 生产成本）进一步受到挤压之前退出，加速全面矿工投降阶段。
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比特币市场陷入困境，矿工竞相前进5 m' C3 y4 ]1 `9 }5 |! A* g
距离第四次减半还有一年，开采单个比特币的平均成本仍然徘徊在 91,105 美元左右，而比特币市场一直横盘整理，BTC 徘徊在 10.3 万美元至 10.5 万美元之间。( ?& k5 N& W" ~0 S
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确实，比特币5月份的投资回报率高达11.12%，甚至创下了历史新高。这反过来又推动了比特币市场进入新一轮获利回吐的浪潮。* b. C9 z3 f7 {
/ `; ~. E0 ]$ A% A9 O但如果我们继续计分的话，矿工可能已经获得了更大份额。- e9 f" w8 X3 R" Y- G
& s; @$ {4 A# B# P' h6 @4 N& k2025 年 5 月是自 2024 年 4 月减半以来表现最好的月份。2 h6 Z' y' q W1 j- I3 E# E0 L' s6 Q
" e* T$ G2 ?. ~" b7 e8 h- t据 The Block 报道，矿工获得了高达 15.2 亿美元的收入，其中 2000 万美元仅来自链上费用。2 x! V4 ^0 t9 b6 b; Q( b% K+ t, ]
1 L9 d4 d7 t' m7 F' f h话虽如此，早期预警信号正在出现。矿工持仓指数（MPI）已回升至零以上，暗示一些矿工可能已经将货币转移到交易所。- N* o. Q; g! x" O( |% t3 t; e
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从历史上看，大量资金流入往往会抢在投降事件发生之前，尤其是当现货价格接近平均生产成本时。
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$ c) d* {( W# ]9 c' P0 \这使得比特币处于压力区。如果比特币跌破当前区间，一些矿工趁利润丰厚之际套现或许是明智之举。) ^$ s5 }1 p5 X: s1 Q
+ _3 R. x! W/ P这会不会成为比特币市场下一个波动的导火索？这绝对是值得关注的关键触发因素之一。4 O+ | `; r; v% K0 l. V5 R8 o
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这样可以找到下一步如何办的线索？
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