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[lastpost] => 2783810 比特币从超卖低点反弹 2%——这是反弹行情的开始吗？（转） 1763963472 右耳
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[虚拟币交流]
比特币下跌，黄金触顶——但 Uptober 尚未结束（转）
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今年十月已经测试了比特币的[BTC]信徒。在通常被称为“Uptober”的月份过半时，BTC 发现自己处于陌生的境地，遭遇了历史上最糟糕的月中表现之一。
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但你看不到的是，比特币收盘上涨的可能性仍然很大，罕见的BTC-黄金图表细节也表明可能已经触底。
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7 J& O* Q) I- U0 a; UUptober 能否如期实现目标，还是说这将是它的终结？
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开局艰难，但历史看好牛市7 A1 ]* [5 w6 K' L
2025 年 10 月已经赢得了比特币十月份表现为有记录以来第二糟糕。对于通常看涨的月份来说，这是一个令人惊讶的转折。
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E7 P" E( v( _来源：Alphractal, B; W/ V* Q# {, s* X
" l$ f- p; q2 `2 R3 T2 R15年来，只有四个10月份收盘下跌。但鉴于比特币最终上涨的可能性高达73%，胜算仍然对比特币有利。7 j5 t3 _7 N: I1 E8 m! W
3 w" R* b; u `9 R5 _% @) b; |尽管开局不稳，但许多人相信本月结束前可能会转为看涨，保持这种势头。
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事情变得有趣了
9 j6 i" t' _5 \! |BTC/黄金比率中罕见的信号表明形势可能很快就会发生转变。2 G- {4 K4 t% c! G) ^% T6 R- M) `
% v* E( q4 Z4 X2 ?来源：X
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根据最近的数据，该比率已达到迄今为止仅在主要市场底部出现的水平，而这些时刻往往是从黄金转向比特币的最佳时机。
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0 v' i4 E0 b& B V9 P/ p+ |" \" ?2 EBTC/黄金震荡指标徘徊在-1.8左右，从历史上看，这与BTC开始跑赢黄金的周期低点相关。
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正如 Alphractal 首席执行官 Joao Wedson 所说，该图表“基本上是在大声疾呼”现在是“出售黄金、购买比特币的时候了”。3 H' R3 z5 T0 i' \6 i2 K* |* \- Q
* [- o, W4 J1 K随着黄金价格处于高位，而比特币出现触底信号，风险回报方程现在可能更倾向于加密货币，而不是传统的避风港。+ Y* @# g+ n1 b$ O9 _7 `( l+ A
- e' E) p/ |9 ^; S5 N- c, f空头在 10.7 万美元附近失去动力; K- c% G% v" t7 i5 I
经过几天的持续抛售，截至发稿时，比特币似乎稳定在 107,000 美元左右。
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8 F& N/ `* k8 R x1 s! I* I& _5 I来源：TradingView
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. A1 b0 e" D1 x- n: J" R, O日线图显示看跌势头减弱，RSI 指标显示 BTC 处于超卖区域。与此同时，MACD 图柱趋于平缓；如果买盘活跃，则可能出现动能逆转。
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然而，BTC 的交易价格仍然低于关键 EMA（20、50、100），整体趋势仍看跌。
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1 Z8 C( E7 u4 a1 V6 j突破 110,000 美元的决定性举措可能确认复苏，但在此之前，有点乐观永远不会伤害任何人。/ g6 B" T' t, ^
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十月才过一半别急着下结论，比特币这货向来爱搞幺蛾子 |
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这波跌得挺狠，但老韭菜都懂，Uptober还没完呢 |
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