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[虚拟币交流]
讀懂哈希率「煉金術」:加密貨幣算力市場的反身性與四季更迭(转)
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加密貨幣挖礦中,一切都是相關聯的。為了充分了解算力市場動態規律,我們需要抽絲剝繭地研究影響算力變量之間的關係。 在本文中,我們首先將挖礦市場週期定義為四個基礎階段,每個階段具有不同的價格趨勢、硬體容量和市場情緒。我們研究了每種情境下市場中主要的驅動因子,並演示了硬體反射弧和算力的反身性在塑造這些宏週期中所起的作用。通過一系列案例研究和理論論證,我們意圖引入一個指導框架 ,以理解挖礦中的不同投資環境。結尾我們討論了交易費對於挖礦收益日益增長更廣泛意義。基於交易費市場的新機會,以及費率作為一個主要變量,將如何深刻地改變算力市場的結構。 算力市場的四季更迭算力市場動態 是由價格趨勢、反身性的反身性,硬體反應時間和手續費等外在因素和內在因素之間複雜的聯動關係所驅使。雖然連接它們的邏輯看似很明確,但是每個變量的隨機性使建立 廣義模型 非常困難。 正因如此,有時市場表現出的宏觀現象會顯得毫無邏輯,似乎價格和哈希率各自處於完全不同時間的參照系中。儘管如此, 礦工的實際獲利能力 是能被追溯和確定的。我們可以根據歷史挖礦收入如何在不同市場環境下的演變,識別出挖礦週期中繁榮—蕭條的基礎形態 上升牛市 The Rising Bull代幣價格增速超過哈希率增長 當挖礦難度增速明顯滯後於價格上漲時,挖礦是最有利可圖的。「上升牛市」階段通常發生在長時間波動相對較弱之後,價格剛剛開始形成動能,市場中多數仍不確定下一步方向。算力的增長速度 遠低 於價格增速 。算力的提高主要歸因於對價格有上漲預期的礦工或能拿到極低電費的礦工。例如,在 2019 年 1 月至 2019 年 4 月期間,BCH-BSV「算力戰爭」與枯水期重疊,比特幣 價格受到壓制。足智多謀的礦工購買了二級市場上價格便宜的 二手礦機 。有些還通過合成挖礦合同或云挖礦來低價建立倉位。 儘管在這個階段比特幣價格呈上升趨勢,有時環境因素甚至可能導致哈希率下降。通常與 物理條件 有關,例如極端天氣、洪水迫使大型礦場下線。2020 年四川雨季的 洪水 尤其具備破壞性。但是這些是暫時的挫折,通常會隨著時間的推移而復蘇。 另一個可能導致算力下降的特殊情況是由開發者發起的 硬分叉 。在比特大陸首次宣布其 ASIC 晶片礦機可以挖礦 門羅幣(Monero)之後,Monero 開發人員決定每六個月切換一次算法。每次網絡更改算法時,一部分網絡哈希率將下降。開發人員啟動的硬分叉不僅僅是對礦機抱有 敵對情緒 的項目中的一種現象。Sia 開發人員非常接納 ASIC 挖礦,但是他們通過硬分叉專門將比特大陸和嘉楠耘智的 ASIC 礦機從網絡上 清除掉 。 - \$ @, e8 x& x0 b' R6 z: y
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