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很好的文章,转发给大家看。 [欧赔最优解]
6 g9 U4 W& V: z8 r% @+ H0 c
+ A" m) ]: Y" Y: x# e2 N% k' ~: D9 ]大部分盘口根据即时对比因素的不同,庄家根据自身体系出发,结合欧洲形势,可以得出一个最适合受注的赔率组合,这个组合基本上是庄家“最优”的选择。这是本轮讨论的问题。
* y, P& U2 K" }3 e1 @3 R7 s有些比赛,经过考量,是无法得出一个最优解的,无论怎样做盘,利润都不大,甚至略亏损,这时的做盘原则就是“两害相衡取其轻”,选择一个相对能减少风险的组合受注。这是下轮讨论的要点。
# I. E; r: K' O q7 u! C结合举例说明“最优解”思路的具体运用。
; w" w% X6 z5 p' |2 X: O
p( V3 _! [$ U[1]
/ ]) \- {4 M! Z英超第21轮,[6]阿森纳0:0[2]曼联。" d, h7 H- t& l/ p) b' S
威廉:2.5/3.1/2.5。* F2 B" V( }) C3 x
立博:2.25/3.2/2.75。7 m% @; c4 x/ Z+ s: C
这样的强强对话,如果分胜负的话,欧赔的最优解中,平赔需要得到合适的运用,就是充分使用平赔的分散作用(适合于绝大多数强强对话),现盘两大庄,都没有主动运用平赔思维和手法,主动放弃最优解,已经包含不分胜负的看法。' F9 y' H3 o; x' b, D* v% z
结合对比形势,具体对比你自备的资料中有。7 p& Z- L# r& r9 f L0 x/ L" h
主胜的开法:
7 R# H) `+ {. l& i# ^! B, `威廉:2.5/2.9/2.62。2 J& R8 r; N, M* T7 }3 i8 N0 Y& Z7 i
你看胜赔一样,都是2.5,与2.5/3.1/2.5,有什么区别?9 U# m, x v( U: K* n, `* C
2.9对于2.5的分散与3.1对于2.5的分散效果是不同的,前者对于胜赔的分散效果更大,这是以后经常讨论到的“微小”差异,欧赔的很多关键点就在这“微小”差异上,对微小要点的理解累积达到质变后就是欧赔层次的上升。
7 \/ `& q9 ^- X+ e主负:, R7 U; _ T- R# D9 Y
威廉:2.37/3/2.7。类似赛事:皇马0:3巴萨。思路是营造平胜格局,适当阻碍负赔。2 a8 s" d+ t9 k* N3 d
去年,阿森纳2:4曼联,威廉是:2.2/3/3,左倾幅度更大,是为了更有效营造平胜格局,同时形成负赔的相应阻力,当然这个位置是有阻力但是也不能使得赔付增加太多。# W5 t+ Y( w8 \0 h1 t, r5 q8 ], \( i0 |
平局:0 T) X5 c, y3 y; B' D% V' d8 ~
现盘的思路是,威廉:平赔中庸(不清晰明确表达看好平局的观点、但是赔付也不至于庄家难以承受的位置),胜负均衡双向分散。立博:平赔营造小梯度3.2,但是配合拉低了胜赔,就是增大了胜赔的分散力,同时也没有损失负赔的多少分散力,综合起来足够分散3.2的平赔。; O" j R# @4 X9 W) [- \5 I
H* p/ t5 s9 n, T[2]西甲第18轮,[4]维拉0:0[5]皇马4 ^3 A# t' H$ a; j' ~& m
威廉:2.3/3.2/2.6。立博:2.5/3.2/2.5。* C. I' V8 q* _) S) P* q
维拉由于参加欧冠进入16强增加了广义实力,皇马近况麻麻增加了失利可能,是经典平中庸胜负标准双分的思路。5 k: {) @( E* K" h: Z) K
思维与上场一样。
4 R# \& x* R2 ]+ G# k5 l0 e" N- Q3 _: ^; [: G% T7 l
[3]
# c8 K; L% \" p" i! t8 c1 Q西甲第17轮,[3]皇马1:2[14]桑坦德。 G! z2 a+ Q& R2 B" J+ M( M
威廉:1.28/4.5/8。
6 D8 b1 n- U+ F% z5 D+ w, D+ T/ j立博:1.33/4/8,变1.3/4/9。
0 |! o3 X% A9 {$ S5 Z/ M* O主队近况不佳,客队132可以。& a, [* ?7 T' O3 b# g w
广义实力对比是:人气强队VS中下游球队。
9 Z1 J# d( ]- [( h+ t0 u, u主胜最优解:1.22/5/9.5,至多开到1.25/4.5/10。
7 J$ U# c3 a, @- |6 G4 _7 w9 U现在两家都将胜赔抬高,幅度不小,显然放弃了主胜的选择,则断定主队不胜,至于如何判断是负,有些概念需要逐渐讲解后再分析。/ X% z* H2 {% j3 O( v! h- O
主胜的话,如果胜赔一定要开1.28,那么只能采用超低平来配合,才能有效分散“1.28这么高”的胜赔,例如:1.28/4/10,甚至小庄可以开出的1.28/3.95/10.5这样的组合。
" R# E; v+ G3 N
2 N4 S/ U* A3 {. K那么,如何才知道,何种组合才是一场对阵的最优解?) V( D& s& f9 f' c' q. u
结合我发给的赔率统计表,可以感性认识一下。4 f9 j: P) Z% A8 T/ i
同时需要一定比赛科学的有步骤的分析的积累,这是真正有价值的积累。- v1 v% t- x: Q# {9 Q7 f1 Q
以后的“赔率框架位置”专讲,会起到定位作用。
) S1 d4 \) i+ u2 e: u$ Z2 T+ I# {' s4 ]
很多时候,寻找判断最优解,不一定要分析出具体位置,分析出相应的营造最优解的思路即可得到很大帮助。
; q8 g8 ^2 S: l& N( T# E5 r3 }$ O, [0 u+ C& V' w0 O, H
例如:
/ q6 C0 k5 N7 Y% R4 F5 F/ X西甲第17轮,[20]贝迪斯3:0[19]阿拉维斯7 w& k* D2 w% q/ G
双方战绩均劣,此时威廉1.8/3.25/3.8,分析开平局的思路,显然不能将平赔开这么高,因为无论如何做盘,3.25的平赔都是非常难分散的,连更优解也很难营造。5 I% {+ E) H) R# Z! K; N, |
所以,首先判断分胜负,结合基本实力,简单分析就是主胜。3 @9 Q6 _$ `! R n+ R3 O( T2 @
2 ^) t: q: c* ~" U
欧赔有很多此类很有效的分析思路,当然不是开高就不出开低就出的简单理解。
+ R B( l/ D) x- b b( a* A0 ]: Y当类似思路多了,精准判定一场比赛则是现实可及的,无论场面多么热闹。 |
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