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[lastpost] => 2684952 狗狗币在看涨势头增加、灰度上市传闻的推动下上涨 10.23%(转) 1729264256 mattf
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随着加息、紧缩等货币政策的陆续来临,加密货币从喧嚣的牛市回落,开启新的下跌周期。因为加息、缩表正在一步步扩大,蚕食“放水”带来的市场扩张。
+ [% V9 _2 D8 C. z8 `1 \& ^" x6月的第一个交易日,也是美联储正式启动十年来第二次缩表的日子。Fed自6月1号启动缩表,每月将缩减475亿美元资产,美股在1日开盘后,加密货币出现大规模崩跌,其中比特币跌破3万美元,跌幅超过8.15%;以太坊则是跌破1800美元,跌幅超过10.58%。这也是近期少见与美股纳斯达克趋势脱钩的时候,美股开盘纳斯达克大涨2.69%。 ) {0 U5 X9 j6 y# k* t6 ^
之前市场一直在说缩表对于市场来说是一个,详细的缩表情况可以参考此前文章《缩表比加息更厉害?有什么影响?对于金融市场尤其是加密市场是吉是凶?》。今天具体说说为什么缩表了美股涨了币圈反而还在跌?相关性走出来了吗?加密货币的后市如何?
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- l% X: `2 e2 |/ D( A. J什么是缩表?
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缩表是一个比加息还更为剧烈的金融紧缩措施,也许美联储自己都不知道按下缩表这个按钮,世界金融格局会变成什么样,会造成什么样的连锁反应。
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: }8 r7 a+ ~" Q5 p6 m! c美股短期的反弹是触底信号出现?; ]' p9 I: s9 v2 {( z }
对于缩表对美股走势的影响,有分析认为,关键还是在于美股近期的反弹是否意味着已经触底。近段时间,有关“美股可能触底”的分析也层出不穷。
' _. U# I: Y1 A% W, q h( v7 A9 _据6月1日报道,美上市企业的高管们正在以自疫情开始以来最快的速度购买自己公司的股票。自5月1日至5月24日,标普500指数成分股的内部人员买盘达到了2020年3月以来的最高水平。这也就造成了月初美股独自反弹的迹象。 * E3 B6 Q+ i9 i5 Y
此前美企高管这样大规模的自购股票出现在2020年3月,当时正是新冠疫情导致美股持续大跌,标普500指数跌至数年新低之际。自那之后,美股一路高歌猛进,标普500指数已经从当时的低点翻了近一倍。
5 O; @9 p0 e4 j" y也正因此,在一部分人看来,挥之不去的熊市情绪已经结束,现在离股市底部非常接近。他们正在利用合理的估值来加仓优质公司的股份,以便在长期时间内创造和增长财富。在未来6至12个月甚至更长的时间内,美企高管自购股票对市场应该是利好的。
# y2 R( j# g3 z2 I不过,摩根大通流量交易员对此持有不同的看法, “市场需要回答的问题是,在股市走低之后,经济增长是否趋于稳定,或者是否还会出现更多衰退。美联储将在未来8周内再次加息100个基点,因此认为股市见底还为时过早。” : S: |9 M* v+ a
美股或继续下探
$ s7 c Q i' O& q此轮缩表可能意味着在2022继续加息25个基点。到2023年底,理论上美联储将把长期资产减少超过1万亿美元,
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美联储紧缩对市场的扰动偏短期,中期趋势仍取决于基本面。我们之前分析过,美联储政策的紧缩给全球市场带来的更多是短期的冲击,长期来看各个市场终究会回归到自身的运行逻辑上,基本面依然是决定权益市场中长期走势的核心因素。本轮最“迅猛”的缩表周期,或否也将成为最“短命”的周期。 % U8 e" ^8 ^/ f/ w5 q
今天的分享就到这里,后期会给大家带来其他赛道的龙头项目分析。感兴趣的可以点个关注。我也会不定期整理一些前沿咨询和项目点评,欢迎各位志同道合的币圈人一起来探索。 来源:金色财经 |
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