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[lastpost] => 2684269 两年首次大动作》特斯拉转移1.15万枚比特币,马斯克是否准备出售? 1729270756 天策-瑶娥
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区块链发展至现在,蓝筹和成长,这两种截然不同的投资取向引发了投资情绪的缠斗轨迹,当这种此消彼长的混沌态势随着年终的临近达至高潮时,加密市场也因它们的对决而变得更加扑朔迷离。
- r g# t% J) H$ J' G比特币基金会主席布洛克·皮尔斯沮丧地将加密货币的崩溃与21世纪的互联网泡沫联系在了一起,许多科技公司在那一场浩劫当中灰飞烟灭,一些传统的科技巨头也元气大伤,不得不将位置让给新晋的竞争者们,比如现在的eBay、PayPal和亚马逊。显然比特币的投资者们仍然不甘心,但是现实已经给了他们沉重的一击。 , d J) j2 ^3 ^( k! B% J
资产价格急剧上涨,投资者变富,对市场泡沫批判会变成 FOMO 的武器,而当泡沫破裂价格下跌时,各种看法接踵而至;之前唱空者的看法得到验证,众多亲历者也有更多时间讲自己的故事。
' Z, Z, V1 }( P3 O
: n* L% h" K0 W" V5 c4 }加密货币可以赚大钱,但就连亿万富翁投资者也很容易上当受骗
1 l9 {. z8 _" k- D m不可能弄清楚加密货币及其不断变化的格局
+ g; i" l8 E6 ^/ T4 C- n加密货币几乎还没有可靠的价值衡量标准,以至于加密货币的泡沫是不是即将破灭都很难判断
: ^% d. [. g. P即便泡沫通常是贬义,但有时候一定程度的泡沫会对世界带来正面影响。就好比一杯啤酒都是泡沫,那还叫啤酒吗?但是完全没有泡沫的啤酒,能是新鲜的啤酒吗?所以说,市场需要适量的泡沫,需要这些泡沫的润滑作用,小泡沫的成长对市场发展起到推动作用,大泡沫的破灭对市场发展起到一个警示的作用,泡沫至始至终都会存在的,既然近期市场在努力挤干净泡沫,我认为小的泡沫其实已经在孕育之中了。
# S% x) M e7 H4 @5 _7 Y! G0 \6 Z8 x( S这也有助于解释为什么项目需要很长时间,好处不仅是可以获得有效回馈,也避免无效回馈。
' U% a: E* H0 Z. [: h" F泡沫带来的反应! ]$ h+ V% i# T; [- c0 F2 |0 _
泡沫也有可能带来直接好处,或至少带来正面溢出效应:二十世纪九十年代的电信泡沫产生廉价光纤,当世界准备好迎接 YouTube,光纤就发挥了作用。即使房地产泡沫也有积极作用:带来住房库存。由于新房产非常标准化,可用很好以「iBuying」算法数据训练 — 低科技的泡沫造成高科技结果的稀有案例。但即便如此,大家对价格总是有个疑问:怎么识别何时市场过热?
- A& E0 R2 g- r& D" {对泡沫估值争论通常总结为框架问题。具体来说就是大概两种形式: % H0 a5 i8 f. _6 ?
趋势可以持续多久的问题:如果一个趋势转瞬即逝,{就像去年满天飞的链游}那么当前增长就只是暴跌前的一次起伏。电子商务股票 1999 年的走势很好看,Beanie Babies 的也是,需要进行判断才能确定哪些趋势会继续。但由于复合利率的力量,一个趋势只要比看上去持续那么一点点,带来的影响力会超乎寻常。
" r9 @$ F `* H$ A5 X5 L1 ~+ W造福效应和连锁反应的问题:一个版块推出一件成功的产品,是否就意味着下件产品也会成功?去年AXS成功之后,掀起链游狂潮,只要是个玩赚游戏就会有人去玩,但是今年还有几个存活? # R$ o, K w" ^9 U) g
即便泡沫通常是贬义,但有时候一定程度的泡沫会对世界带来正面影响。就好比一杯啤酒都是泡沫,那还叫啤酒吗?但是完全没有泡沫的啤酒,能是新鲜的啤酒吗?所以说,市场需要适量的泡沫,需要这些泡沫的润滑作用,小泡沫的成长对市场发展起到推动作用,大泡沫的破灭对市场发展起到一个警示的作用,泡沫至始至终都会存在的,既然近期市场在努力挤干净泡沫,我认为小的泡沫其实已经在孕育之中了。
8 C2 n% \; l' m- o今天的分享就到这里,后期工种号团子财经会给大家带来其他赛道的龙头项目分析。感兴趣的可以点个关注。我也会不定期整理一些前沿咨询和项目点评,欢迎各位志同道合的币圈人一起来探索。 来源:金色财经 |
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