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[虚拟币交流]
灰度GBTC负溢价收窄至26.76%！转比特币ETF希望大增（转载）
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资产管理规模超过9兆美元的贝莱德(BlackRock)，旗下iShares基金在上月15日向美国证券交易委员会(SEC)提交比特币现货ETF「iShares Bitcoin Trust」的申请后，掀起一波比特币现货ETF申请潮，推升比特币持续走扬，彭博资深ETF分析师Eric Balchunas更乐观预测，此申请将在今年底获得批准。
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灰度GBTC负溢价率已收窄至26.76%4 H$ _4 k! x1 V4 T) A( r! g
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受此影响，最大的受益者正是灰度投资(Grayscale Investments)旗下比特币信托基金GBTC，在贝莱德提出申请后仅5天，GBTC日交易量就飙升至近8000万美元，增幅高达约400%。4 }3 O' O3 |* W+ v
* ?) U, }! f( r! l9 ~据Coinglass数据显示，当前灰度基金的总持仓量达190.06亿美元，而GBTC负溢价更是已收窄至26.76%，较2022年12月时的最高负溢价率(当时负溢价达48.32%)收回约25.13%。" @$ A) P4 l* Z
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据了解，Grayscale发行的GBTC在2021年2月底就开始出现负溢价，并随着2022年进入熊市后比率持续扩大，至到今年(2023)负溢价才逐渐平稳。市场不少知名投资人看好GBTC后续发展，包括「女股神」Cathie Wood就多次称赞GBTC的涨幅未来，并期待翻回正溢价，她旗下管理的方舟投资(ARK investment)同时是GBTC最大持有人。% t4 h$ E& Y$ C" i
GBTC自低点破底翻160%
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' G2 f% ~ j7 n: R& \# v/ i' I3 YGBTC目前报价为20.14美元，自从贝莱德申请比特币现货ETF以来，已经大涨超过70%，若与去年12月创下7.86美元低点相比，更是超涨160%。在这段时间内，比特币现货价格涨幅约为81.25%，这代表GBTC近半年内表现明显优于比特币。灰度GBTC转比特币ETF希望大增0 h- j, y5 |: ?/ l. z$ \
$ U- s" l" M g B+ G9 W. O+ O值得一提的是，SEC与灰度针对「GBTC转比特币现货ETF」的诉讼仍在进行当中，不过在今年3月7日双方于法院展开辩论过后，彭博分析师已将灰度胜诉的机率从40%提升为70%，灰度执行长Michael Sonnenshein日前表示，预计在今年9月底前，此案将有结果。
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针对为何GBTC负溢价正在大幅收窄，彭博报导，原因是在贝莱德提出申请后，投资者押注GBTC转换为比特币现货ETF的成功可能性变得更大，虽然先前SEC以市场操纵、缺乏投资者保护为由，多次否决比特币现货ETF，但贝莱德的申请，被视为SEC可能改变主意的迹象。
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