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[虚拟币交流]
比特币一度冲破3万美元！现货ETF、触底的波动率唤醒上涨攻势？（转载）
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比特币(BTC)在7月中旬上冲至31,800美元高点，创下去年5月以来的新高后，就开始不8 |1 M7 m3 u; f3 x' u3 Y6 O
断阴跌，甚至多次跌破2.8万美元。5 N& i5 [- T# h1 V3 F* b
但昨日开始，比特币价格似乎又再次扭转颓势，突破盘整区间从29,000美元附近一举上攻，一度在今晨站上3 i% i8 Q/ ~0 q, d; B T8 _2 P
30,000美元大关，截稿前略有下滑暂报29,862美元。
" H/ h4 O5 X$ I5 F0 C波动率历史低点，爆发到来？1 Z9 i' u9 S! C+ j; T
近期，研究机构K33 Research发布一份最新比特币研报，指出比特币当前5日波动率已低于传统证券、甚至是黄- Y* i) Z9 m. S+ p1 l, X
金，K33分析师认为比特币正处于「火山爆发」前夕。(历史中同样情况时，上涨的机率比下跌高一些)
/ w5 C" F( \3 t; X# d1 ?8 d2 _从Coinglass数据可以看到，近期比特币价格的波动率大概落在1.3%左右，这个水平是自从2020年牛市启动前的1 x7 Y9 p. H8 F- L. T% F- L* \/ @
低点。
4 g' B" s6 g/ I+ Z G" m全球经济将迈入升息周期尾声6 O" }3 I" }; u& m' r% h- }! L
另一方面，上周五(4)美国劳工部公布了非农就业报告，非农就业的增加人数创下了2020年12月以来最低纪录，突& v k3 d) R5 [, o2 C& v
显了经济降温的迹象，并预计将缓解联准会在下次会议上升息的压力。8 z# E1 a s+ l
目前芝商所的FedWatch数据也显示，市场预测联准会在下次利率会议上维持在现行利率区间5.25%~5.50%的机/ e: `$ F+ X, G: a8 `
率高达86.5%，本波升息循环可以将正式结束。! c" r7 U( Y! _9 D7 g
美国多间银行也对外表示全球升息周期有可能落幕，据财富周五报导，亚特兰大联邦准备银行行长Raphael: y& T6 [ M: ~6 K& n, N
Bostic公开表明他认为没有必要进一步加息。
9 x& g) z0 Y3 [5 a9 r$ O“我预计经济将以相当有序的方式放缓，而7月份的非农就业数据-18.7万人的增幅-将继续这一步伐，我预计这种8 h |! ^ A. ?5 N
情况不会在短时间内结束。”
$ e2 S9 M$ ?3 p. ]纽约联准银行总裁威廉斯(John Williams)也在近期接受纽约时报专访指出，未来的通膨如果如外界预期般持续下
* L7 Y- O- U/ U; q降，他认为联准会(Fed)不排除明年甚至可能开始降息，但一切有待更多数据公布。
* ]; T# i. D" ? n% M$ K! `比特币ETF即将通过？' L& ~0 R8 j1 v+ n
另外一个可能会大举推动比特币上涨的原因还有一个，由多家华尔街巨头推动的比特币现货ETF。据Bloomberg$ I+ M/ R9 N2 I1 r0 f
资深ETF分析师Eric Balchunas昨晚最新贴文，他表示：Galaxy执行长Mike Novogratz在今早的财报电话会议上 k3 X' Q0 _" W- J2 d
表示，据贝莱德和景顺投信内部的联系人透露，比特币现货ETF的批准可能会在四到六个月内，而不是「是否」的. j- o! l3 o9 [- A9 h+ J$ J" L2 Z- s
问题。
) N3 H1 L- c; {& l2 r+ g似乎有很大的自信判断市场即将迎来现货ETF。
/ f6 e+ H b; |: L. h8 @2 G. z6 `2 y( q h% U- K8 L5 e2 i
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