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[虚拟币交流]
Ripple加入ISDA会员！XRP目标价1896美元？（转载）
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支付网络公司Ripple近期加入了ISDA会员，有人乐观预估其币价会上看1,898美元。
. B0 u1 a/ s7 H9 O3 y- r9 I3 _; OISDA有何重要性？真的对XRP币价有如此深远的影响吗？
9 e0 E5 ]* ?5 J7 O4 o什么是ISDA？
: x, q" W2 r/ w& ?1 z6 r& A& f; [国际交换兼衍生性商品协会(International Swaps and Derivatives Association，ISDA)为总部位于美国纽约的非
$ h6 a/ E. @+ e" U营利性组织，成立于1985年。银行或金融交易对手若要承作衍生性金融商品，都会预先签订所谓的ISDA主契约, Q/ d! O* _& T( z
(master agreement)，这个由ISDA设计，目前广为世界各金融中心所沿用的法律契约，其主要功能在于规范交易- }* f0 b6 {" a$ |: p
双方的法律风险及信用风险，并且通过中立的角色，设计出公平的法律条款，使双方的交易成本降低，有助于市/ e i' i$ |5 J X8 A# N
场的正常发展。
7 L% H( I& N8 F; P) ?& ]- F换句话说，要跟全球的金融机构交易衍生性商品，就必需加入ISDA。
( |: p' H4 d c# Z8 Y1 L1 g4 d进入ISDA的数字资产会员名单，目前仅有16名会员，其中大家比较熟悉的还包括Crypto.com、Algorand和
/ V& B% s! t0 F/ x. V& ]Digital Asset。9 p7 q$ f1 `( X, S" Z/ w
加入ISDA，XRP目标价1,896美元？# C( V5 e" _! S7 Q" ^
Digital Perspectives PermaBull的推文引发了一系列讨论。他强调了Ripple与ISDA的合作对XRP价格的潜在影
9 e' s# y& P2 Y+ |响，其中引用了Mr.Man的推算法，若Ripple能获得主流的采用，将使其币价来到1,896美元。
0 }( D! M# E+ T% A/ [2 y根据其推论：9 m, }, V3 w1 I2 P- T7 a9 o
现今全球衍生性商品总市值为1,000兆美元- m( Y+ l8 r: U* ^0 `: B1 ?8 a8 d5 Q
若Ripple能协助处理其中10%的交易量，也就是100兆美元/ k$ s' Z9 l( S& C$ V
XRP目前总市值为349亿美元
5 n/ C$ \6 j! w' V3 @9 m! _需成长2,865倍才能达到100兆美元, j) r. L1 p9 \5 a
而XRP目前币价为0.661742# |' R0 s9 x! M% X! Z
0.661742*2865=1,896.23美元
! F3 r* `3 t3 t0 k& _. C3 W3 k挟带ISO和ISDA的优势引导传统金融的采用？
X# u+ T, n4 L( g4 S' u不过观察XRP近期的走势，仅有在七月中因与SEC的诉讼案传出好消息而一度大涨99%，之后币价逐渐回落后似乎: s, X0 g! i* `' O
也未有极大的波动。( V, C9 @+ w( E/ W6 C$ w' q
而上述的论点仅基于简单的假设和推论，比方说10%的交易量，是来自传统金融产业想利用区块链技术进行衍生. h1 ~/ c$ m% q) `* r7 K9 e
性金融商品交易？交易量和市值的关系应该也不是如此直观而直接。但随着Ripple和SEC的诉讼案逐渐明朗，这
2 K) }/ a: f, s" P. s& D R l7 d个早期加入区块链的支付公司，是否有机会利用其XRP Ledger的底层技术，挟带ISO20022和ISDA的优势，慢慢
/ H* n( A3 b$ W$ A! ~4 l4 D& h引导传统金融的采用呢？" i/ z O& k& a$ ]: P
1 ~3 s- x% k0 |# L3 W- d% n
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