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[lastpost] => 2657711 赌运亨通 自由行客四两搏千斤(转载) 1718642526 suifengguo
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以下是输给那破游戏不甘心后的乱想..如有错误请提出或无视.. 首先是豹子问题
* z- a N5 @/ _2 w& L1 Y4 N6 V' v& _# N7 m1 g( L6 |1 b0 r1 Q' @
因为太郁闷..所以从排列组合开始..
* X1 X; h9 p7 l( s8 U5 z3 K8 W) H+ Q9 `4 Y3 C
假设直线A上有N个点,取任意点都有相同程度的概率.那么有2个取点者同时随即取点E,2者同时取得点E的概率是E/N*N$ @0 N& G% p9 l$ z2 ~: T, o
1 j1 }/ w: R$ g1 a q" {
那么豹子的出现概率是2/216=0.00926=0.926%/ u# W- u3 M& a7 O1 i
7 {( E, g1 {8 Z9 n6 b, j) @' }
豹子的赔率是30那么收益期望为0.2778风险为99.074%
) X* S% @' J3 g+ A! @) X3 i. {7 t, n C! Z. X8 P( V2 H& @
连续2次出现率为42.67%的负4次方(大概是大型超市抽奖活动的特等奖的概率..有信心的可以玩下): t' Z4 j/ k% |8 c p g# \
% x: g# P" Y. r; W Z6 e( O$ O
在是压大小问题.% @3 \! }6 A/ k
6 \( V, b8 Q; w3 a0 s) K7 B根据以上得出每组大小的概率是49%..8 [% t$ x8 P' u$ h8 W2 P
( q8 N4 I! p3 j+ `由此可见..压大小就总合来说是必败的
! V' W5 b& d1 Q8 C7 Q; h
. m8 u# w- q8 b+ O8 A6 [心理学中有个叫赌徒效应还是啥啥的..是说随即序列发生一个事件的概率与之前发生的事件无关。即发生的概率并没有因先前发生的事件而增加。5 A) B9 q- b8 r; I' M
3 S% [1 W/ _- a
也就是说,压大小实际上永远就是49%概率压对。
5 Q" z& ?# i, e# a
+ I) | q; L' ^并非这次压错了.下次就是50%了
/ Z0 a, J7 e }: b, k* U4 V
1 F1 J* G; @2 c; C由此可见压大小以综合来说必输.压豹子其收益价与风险值不成比列。
" {% N- [. ^+ F- c+ F* W& ]( F2 [( m4 H0 Q- |
根据以上分析.还是奉劝大家!远离DB!
4 v9 W$ a6 U/ |5 W8 S8 U; z- Q
, |- q6 p+ N E* y' G/ F- i还有..以上是有实际验证的~昨天赌了上百回资金流动大概有成千上万..损失了进两百7 W* f9 E' o. |* ?
& F% v# M% C \/ f今天中午又赌了N次..资金流动上千..损失了30左右..均与以上概率成比例~ 嘛- -偶赌的还算比较厉害了..输的惨就不去说了~~那位上千的全没了( @) {8 Z1 r$ l w+ P* }+ n& b
3 Q2 l! v3 [# k' z6 I
偶决定在也不赌了~真的...4 `! Z! B/ k4 G1 m) \( X, O! Z
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必输的东西也是要来旁观了啊,这么的东西还是值得学学的 |
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