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在2024年的比特币减半周期中,市场冲击供应目前主要受限于由Mt. Gox和Genesis破产案所涉及的100亿美元(168,000 BTC)的比特币偿还。市场担忧这些债权人在获得全额补偿后可能选择抛售其持有的比特币,从而引发市场动荡,特别是在如果由于近期利率下降导致的经济衰退情况下触发抛售潮 ZF从非法网站(通常是暗网)没收的比特币也增加了市场冲击供应。 例如,2024年2月,德国当局从盗版网站Movie2k.to的前运营商处没收了50,000枚比特币,价值约21亿美元。这些加密货币是该案件嫌疑人在一次关于非法商业剥削版权作品和洗钱的调查中自愿交出的。这次没收是德累斯顿检察官办公室、萨克森州刑事JC以及其他机构联合调查的一部分。 在没收比特币后,萨克森州ZF将其抛售至市场,导致比特币兑美元(BTC )价格下跌了16.89%。然而,在抛售的最后一天,价格反弹,最终下跌幅度收窄至8.85%。 市场冲击供应不仅限于德国萨克森州。截至2024年,全球多个ZF持有大量比特币,主要是通过与犯罪活动相关的没收行为获得的: 美国:美国ZF是全球最大的比特币持有者,约持有203,129枚BTC,价值约119.8亿美元。这些比特币主要通过与“丝绸之路”暗网市场等案件相关的没收获得。 天朝:天朝持有约190,000枚比特币,价值约110.2亿美元。这些比特币大部分来自PlusToken庞氏骗局,这是历史上最大的加密货币诈骗之一。 英国:英国持有约61,000枚比特币,价值约35.3亿美元。这些比特币是从各种金融犯罪中没收的,包括重大洗钱行动。 萨尔瓦多:作为第一个将比特币作为法定货币的国家,萨尔瓦多持有约5,800枚比特币,价值约4亿美元。这些持仓是国家金融战略的一部分,包括“每天购买1枚比特币”的计划。 乌克兰:乌克兰持有约46,351枚比特币,既包括警方没收的资产,也包括战争期间收到的捐赠。 \* l5 t: L1 R* V. ?/ [, V
2024年引入了一个新的比特币价格相关性:比特币ETF净流动。随着加密货币逐步纳入结构化产品,全球投资宏观趋势将越来越多地与资产的代币经济学及其网络/协议的表现KPI共同决定其价格。 |
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