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[lastpost] => 2806217 从长期来看 以太坊这个价位一定套不住(转) 1770915480 人生如赌
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1. 宏观因素影响市场走势
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过去一周市场涨跌主要受宏观经济数据影响,包括美国未来的降息预期、上周的非农数据和失业率,以及本周即将公布的PPI与CPI数据。
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PPI助推反弹:昨晚公布的PPI数据低于市场预期,被认为是近期少见的利好消息。PPI同比上涨3.3%(预期3.5%),核心PPI同比上涨3.5%(预期3.8%),这让市场信心得到了一定恢复。
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CPI才是关键:今晚的CPI数据更为重要,市场预期CPI同比为2.9%(前值2.7%),核心CPI预期为3.3%。如果数据能保持在预期或持平的水平,大饼(比特币)可能重回10万美元上方,并延续市场的炒作行情。
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3 C. ?& j% d# C3 I }0 T0 N. w2. 比特币市场现状与未来预期% | V, V$ J, W, Q8 e
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当前持仓成本:
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0 ^* l+ [) X& _" s6 j e$ i" w3 e机构的平均持仓成本在8.1万美元左右;
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微策略因早期进场,平均成本约为6.2万美元;
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6 o& d; Y9 Y# F5 g* A! ZETF持仓成本约在7万美元上下。
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8 l9 E& @: K* p8 B比特币价值回归:3 v( q$ b4 ?/ |& ~1 u$ ]" `; P
+ M* t4 P5 l3 L* E) B4 h' C* D4 {市场大部分散户的低价筹码已经交割完毕,当前持币主力成本价在6-8万美元区间。
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随着更多公司和国家效仿萨尔瓦多将比特币纳入战略储备,比特币的流通将越来越少,机构预测其价格有望达到15万甚至20万美元。( y1 C5 ]0 s5 v
: a8 M- r' J8 X; t7 X* w加密资产的国家效应:萨尔瓦多因比特币政策而成为中美洲金融科技中心,吸引了像Tether这样的大型加密公司入驻。
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3. 市场热点与反弹情况5 g% s9 j$ W7 R& t4 M$ k& e
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ETH:
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" Q! W& R$ C) r虽然受到大量抛售的质疑,但以太坊价格总体稳定,汇率回升至0.033。
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机构普遍认为以太坊本轮高点或达到1万美元。+ A; g5 ]- n% k S) Q9 ~, M
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BTC:
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+ k. y: Z* H2 {7 z: q) n3 r尽管ETF持续外流且贝莱德带头抛售,比特币依然维持强势。& O8 i4 u; V: d; N) R: a6 V( r8 J
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如果今晚CPI数据利好,突破10万美元可能性极大。4 A4 S% o* D+ E7 ~. ?/ A; R
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SOL与XRP:
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9 }& m. r! }. ]8 D3 _- ^/ `$ FSOL走势强劲,被认为是AI生态的主导者。摩根大通预计SOL与XRP的ETF即将推出,或吸引150亿美元资金入场。
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) O: S [% y+ j0 R8 o7 N) V3 GXRP走势超强,多次占据韩所榜首,有市场声音预测其价格达到10美元、市值超越以太坊。9 n- G! ]8 e3 S( |+ ^
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其他热点项目:
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6 C: p `. e$ B涉及ETF或政策的项目如$hbar、$algo、$ada等走势同样强劲。
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山寨市场近期普遍上涨,市场预计Q1可能迎来牛市爆发。0 U* ^* s D! t
4 p' L7 _( I! r2 Y" m4. AI赛道与新兴项目0 ^% I0 r% x1 r6 A) ?/ {& ]# d
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AI领域表现突出,板块总市值达160亿美元,近期涨幅明显。7 }1 q. c% n! Y) ]) ~: }
4 g Q/ ?/ Z: B% p. X. i! H+ ]蓝筹项目:如$ai16z、$virtual和$aixbt等市值迅速攀升,部分实现翻倍增长。
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}: Q, [9 t& m; {新兴项目:正经团队推出的AI项目表现稳健,例如$mates和$sora已获得市场认可。
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. A r8 J4 q! u: E9 q市场展望
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! Y( Z# o; ^: u5 O( \随着宏观经济环境和政策明朗,加密市场有望迎来更多利好。山寨牛市或在第一季度爆发,AI、主流币、以及新兴应用赛道将继续成为市场焦点。. J% @2 e4 A4 Q; y/ B! v& p7 F
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