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过去一周，比特币[BTC]一直受困于低流动性流入，导致自 8 月 14 日重新创下历史新高以来已下跌 10%。2 _6 r: [. W B& P6 }5 ?2 w L
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值得注意的是，这种流动性枯竭通常预示着潜在的看跌情景，因为当市场达到季节性高潮时，投资者开始抛售资产。
3 r; f9 p+ ^+ r7 Y0 p
; } _' R% |2 \然而，新的宏观经济见解认为，尽管逆转的风险仍然存在，但市场仍然看涨。% N$ a7 v4 d& V0 O" N
5 }2 @% T. j2 P2 m; |! ?
宏观信号依然支持
6 l0 m0 E& |# r- i! c' U美国宏观经济指标阿尔弗莱克塔尔根据美联储金融压力指数 (FFSI)，比特币和标准普尔 500 指数在未来几天都有进一步上涨的空间。
9 C/ K, I& h2 C4 ^7 F Q
! N) I( X4 |/ p! K7 I该指数追踪市场紧张程度，高于 0 的高读数表示卖方压力，而低于 0 的数值则反映市场平静和购买兴趣。# a1 r' N# e! s7 y3 J6 l/ o) h. p; q
x5 @8 v# U3 \! n% @( o从历史上看，该指标曾预测过重大的市场波动，包括2020年封锁期间。截至发稿时，FFSI低于0，预示着未来仍有增长空间。' y, Y" P5 {% L( F# {' C5 H" W
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市场情绪似乎更倾向于比特币而非标准普尔 500 指数，尤其是考虑到过去一年的表现，比特币上涨了 86.2%，而标准普尔指数则上涨了 15.3%。阿尔忒弥斯.
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, D% \: ]* k5 y% O# w这表明，如果购买恢复，投资者可能会将资金投入比特币而不是标准普尔，因为他们的风险偏好依然强劲。- x4 T4 H7 P; u6 T! v" o
# k4 _ X+ f+ Z* f8 W' i
著名加密货币分析师 Joao Wedson 最近将此描述为市场“平静/观察”阶段，但警告称“价格走势通常比宏观指标反应更快”，从而使资产处于灰色地带。
/ }5 i! Y- C% ]6 g7 r; P* z/ s* A' q8 [) v9 i& p5 e" V1 g
他补充道，4 F1 Y+ N/ d6 l& k" a
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“如果FFSI跌破并保持在0以上，这将是一个警告信号，表明美国局势可能不稳定，并直接影响风险市场。”6 C! D* O& V: {6 L
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韦德森警告称，随着我们进入 2025 年末和 2026 年初，这种情况可能会引发“亚洲主要经济体”更广泛的经济不稳定，从而可能阻止比特币的上涨。# d" W: A( o9 W: n1 ^& V
" Q0 h4 i% K6 {) d2 n3 L他敦促投资者做好准备，以免措手不及。
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0 P8 L. g* V9 |: e# {& ^亚洲比特币市场再度走强
7 h6 M7 e4 k8 q0 W4 t4 W2 T亚洲市场正显示出复苏的早期迹象，随着韩国溢价指数达到 0.3，投资者再次对比特币进行买入。CryptoQuant.5 E/ U8 m" n1 ^2 z% G1 L
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此前，该指数一直处于持续的下跌趋势中，并以红色标记。持续的上涨趋势可能会引发更多资金流入，尤其是来自新投资者群体的资金。
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" G% ~# q( g9 R v7 F相比之下，截至发稿时，关键市场指标 Coinbase 溢价指数已降至 0.017，这表明美国投资者正在增加卖方活动。
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然而，如果这一指标反弹，它可能会增强围绕比特币日益增长的看涨情绪。
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这种行情，我还是宁愿相信宏观信号，继续看涨比特币。 |
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宏观偏暖，量弱，先小仓吧$ `; x6 L# A B, n+ t
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