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机构前瞻美国 9 月非农就业报告：就业市场疲软态势或延续，但崩溃言之过早
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比推消息，据金十报道，停摆后的首份非农报告将于今晚公布，各家机构观点如下：
洛克菲勒：预计 9 月非农就业人数将增加 5 万人，表明就业市场保持稳定，前期已公布的劳动力数据明显呈现疲软态势；
Indeed Hiring Lab：相较既往报告，并不认为 9 月非农就业报告会有重大变化，当前劳动力市场的疲软态势将会延续；
潘森宏观：任何在当前看来不尽人意的数据，均可能因持续六周的数据真空期而持续发酵，非农数据的负面影响或被放大；
路透调查：预计 9 月非农就业人数将增加 5 万人，经济学家认为 8 月数据受到季节性异常因素压制，或根据往年趋势进行上修；
洛约拉马利蒙特大学：劳动力市场明显在放缓，普遍预期是这一趋势将持续，劳动力市场将在底部徘徊一段时间，但不会陷入衰退；
Nationwide：预计 9 月非农就业人数将增加 4-5 万人，这将进一步证实就业市场夏季的疲软已延续至秋季，企业维持不招聘不解雇的态度；
法农信贷：预计 9 月非农就业人数将增加 5.5 万人，失业率将录得 4.3%；劳动力市场看似降温，但并未崩溃，依旧是低招聘、低裁员的情况；
渣打银行：预计 9-11 月非农就业数据将非常疲软，季节性招聘可能会非常弱，裁员将异常高企，这应足以说服美联储中间派倒向降息阵营；
高盛集团：预计 9 月非农就业人数将增加 8 万人，失业率将录得 4.3%；风险将暗藏在不公布的 10 月数据中，预计 10 月非农就业人数将录得-5 万人；
联信银行：预计 9 月非农就业人数将增加约 4 万人，市场反应可能会比往常小，因为关于就业市场的更多信息已经可以从私营机构发布的数据中获取；
咨询公司 RSM：9 月数据连同 7、8 月的修正值将显示就业前景略好于普遍预期，但远不值得夸耀，劳动力市场仍在勉力支撑，美国整体经济亦是如此。
（注：市场共识预期为美国 9 月非农就业人数将增加 5 万人，失业率将录得 4.3%。）
风险提示： 本新闻涉及的内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。依据发布的信息以及所表达的意见行事所造成的一切后果由行事者自负。文章链接 |
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