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莫陆军vs国米解读：缺进攻核心 蓝黑军保平为主
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北京时间周三(9月28日)凌晨00点00分，欧冠小组赛将进行B组的一场比赛，国米做客莫斯科对阵莫斯科中央陆军，首轮输球的国米这个客场没有退路。/ c2 N& T$ A7 q: Q
. ]" f5 l9 v( y4 a- @2 R: v8 |欧赔" A- h9 |4 _1 `" z
/ I& |2 ^" x- Q1 B) E澳门：2.48 3.22 2.52/ B3 g; l4 s" l# p& A7 a- f$ x
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立博：2.60 3.30 2.75% ?9 E5 u0 i; H$ O# a$ m
& v; q1 M3 _2 G3 s! Jbet365：2.75 3.30 2.604 T1 j! b5 p; `( s! R
0 W3 u/ ^, O! ^. r3 S% I目前欧赔大部分公司是中央陆军取胜赔率略低或两边取胜赔率相同，只有少数公司是国米取胜赔率略低。从走势上来看，中央陆军取胜赔率三种变化都有，平局大部分公司基本保持不动，国米的取胜赔率大部分公司升高。从目前赔率来看，国米取胜前景不乐观，因为国米取胜赔率相差实在太大，只看大公司，澳门最低2.52，威廉最高2.70。国米要赢球，取胜赔率差需要缩小点。4 `' W% i( P8 {
2 Q7 a2 ~; v8 N+ s# u亚盘
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澳门：0.90 0 0.961 S2 q, W- \/ V' N5 E
* `9 |8 z( ~/ c7 y1 s" F- k立博：0.84 0 1.02- J& @3 n& }; P$ f; V( D
2 c9 C# W+ d! r6 z- ibet365：0.95 0 0.95
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( k& \) }" Q# z亚盘现在都是平手盘，大多数公司中央陆军水位在0.90-0.95之间，少数几家在0.90以下，目前各公司中央陆军的水位都不高于国米的。澳门的走势反映了国米还是颇为被看好，澳门初盘是平手盘中央陆军0.84水，现在主队水位已有不小幅度的上升。这场球澳门初盘很能反映他们的态度，国米不会被忽视还给平手盘大高水，除非临场国米变成低水，否则国米难胜。/ F7 t' e' ?: ^; S9 g# ~
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对战记录
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+ x5 B! M* M9 f; M# ]+ q+ ^两队在欧洲三大杯历史上交战4场，莫斯科中央陆军队4战全负处于劣势，进3球失8球，其中主场2战全负处于下风，进1球失3球。两队最近一次交锋是2009-10赛季的欧冠1/4决赛，国米主客场都是1-0取胜，国米参加那两场比赛的除了潘德夫和巴洛特利外，其他球员都在队，中央陆军参加过那两场比赛的除了马克-冈萨雷斯和古尔赫梅外也都在，两队球员之间应该不陌生。
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9 C+ J, T6 Z. d; J! F, ?近期表现1 E% g4 T0 W P9 L0 X H
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国米上周中联赛输球后进行了换帅，拉涅利取代加斯佩里尼，周末联赛国米3-1击败博洛尼亚取得联赛首胜。拉涅利对阵容进行了很大的调整，把阵型改成了442，在加斯佩里尼手中郁郁不得志的帕齐尼重回首发就有进球。虽然首场赢球，但拉涅利上任后面临的问题还很多，最大的是伤病，在去莫斯科的航班上，他的球队没有斯内德、斯坦科维奇、莫塔和麦孔，也没有无欧联资格的弗兰。
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1 B9 _ d$ b b6 V- ]% I0 z3 Y& S中央陆军上周末联赛主场3-1击败保级球队诺夫哥罗德，主力阿金费耶夫、内西德、本田圭佑因伤缺席，托西奇轮休。现在俄超已经踢了25轮还剩下5轮，中央陆军积50分排名第2比榜首的泽尼特少2分，中央陆军两线都不想放松，这就看主教练的指挥能力了。! x1 I* a2 R( `8 \) r+ i
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胜负关键
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两队之中有多人是国家队队友：本田圭佑和长友佑都、奥迪亚和奥比、托西奇和斯坦科维奇、瓦格纳-洛维和塞萨尔、卢西奥、麦孔，加上两年前两队刚交手且那时候的球员大部分都还在，这场双方之间几乎没有秘密可言。
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- x9 v0 G/ A* n7 G4 P' t, y- F以拉涅利的性格和以往的执教风格，这个客场他不会主动进攻，会把放手放在第一位，这一点也符合国米现在的现状，拉涅利改踢442，但现在国米没有好的边前卫，前锋和中前卫的发挥就很关键了，本场缺少了斯内德、弗兰，中场组织会降个档次，而锋线只有帕齐尼、萨拉特和米利托三名前锋，萨拉特和米利托本赛季的表现非常糟糕令人不敢恭维。国米要主动进攻的话，靠目前的进攻线进球并没把握，有可能防线还出现疏漏。9 N: d- m6 p2 ], s, r3 ?
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而中央陆军的战术也比较好猜，主场面对国米，他们必然也是把防守放在首位，先不求功但无无过，中央陆军的防线保持得非常稳定，三名俄罗斯国脚伊格纳舍维奇和别列祖夫斯基兄弟在一起配合征战多年，以3人间的默契，只要是阵地战的防守，对大多数球队都很有把握。. H' t" J& y! _, k6 Y
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从两队的战术选择来看，这场平局的可能性最大，双方的进球机会都不会多，谈胜负的话，个人觉得进攻处于重组、缺少多名主力的国米希望不大 |
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