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[虚拟币交流]
比特币一度冲破3万美元！现货ETF、触底的波动率唤醒上涨攻势？（转载）
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比特币(BTC)在7月中旬上冲至31,800美元高点，创下去年5月以来的新高后，就开始不( h" g. I2 G# z; n$ U+ X& q
断阴跌，甚至多次跌破2.8万美元。( a4 j2 t7 e7 n
但昨日开始，比特币价格似乎又再次扭转颓势，突破盘整区间从29,000美元附近一举上攻，一度在今晨站上0 m1 R9 ?9 B6 G; s- c& o r& _
30,000美元大关，截稿前略有下滑暂报29,862美元。
c8 A q0 B- H( Z& J, V! V) y波动率历史低点，爆发到来？
# F- U3 [" N' D* Q2 Q |% i近期，研究机构K33 Research发布一份最新比特币研报，指出比特币当前5日波动率已低于传统证券、甚至是黄
7 D. s9 E1 i# O, L# u) B$ _金，K33分析师认为比特币正处于「火山爆发」前夕。(历史中同样情况时，上涨的机率比下跌高一些)
2 Q6 N- Q' _5 x# u* E7 e4 D从Coinglass数据可以看到，近期比特币价格的波动率大概落在1.3%左右，这个水平是自从2020年牛市启动前的7 J6 N/ i( o7 C! `
低点。( q; w4 g& N8 G
全球经济将迈入升息周期尾声
# Q; r1 a& m3 S( m0 G* V8 H另一方面，上周五(4)美国劳工部公布了非农就业报告，非农就业的增加人数创下了2020年12月以来最低纪录，突; K, R2 X' s5 R, ?8 K! @! \' S
显了经济降温的迹象，并预计将缓解联准会在下次会议上升息的压力。, J/ _7 g6 _) `; V
目前芝商所的FedWatch数据也显示，市场预测联准会在下次利率会议上维持在现行利率区间5.25%~5.50%的机9 z1 [" i+ |+ d0 K O7 G
率高达86.5%，本波升息循环可以将正式结束。
# ^! M6 _! u- x美国多间银行也对外表示全球升息周期有可能落幕，据财富周五报导，亚特兰大联邦准备银行行长Raphael( w( U2 r6 R- E& N
Bostic公开表明他认为没有必要进一步加息。
) M- t% Z! {$ P; F" L5 D' s& L“我预计经济将以相当有序的方式放缓，而7月份的非农就业数据-18.7万人的增幅-将继续这一步伐，我预计这种+ L2 z3 q6 _, B; Z' d
情况不会在短时间内结束。”5 M' c6 {0 J/ X% ~ T- s
纽约联准银行总裁威廉斯(John Williams)也在近期接受纽约时报专访指出，未来的通膨如果如外界预期般持续下9 e# L2 P4 [) {, D! j! ]
降，他认为联准会(Fed)不排除明年甚至可能开始降息，但一切有待更多数据公布。
7 K/ \( K) b8 B4 `, q6 s# j比特币ETF即将通过？
% ?. E% N8 u' ]" l另外一个可能会大举推动比特币上涨的原因还有一个，由多家华尔街巨头推动的比特币现货ETF。据Bloomberg* e9 `( u. T7 `" c
资深ETF分析师Eric Balchunas昨晚最新贴文，他表示：Galaxy执行长Mike Novogratz在今早的财报电话会议上* @8 d" ~4 g+ ^0 D7 B9 l7 d
表示，据贝莱德和景顺投信内部的联系人透露，比特币现货ETF的批准可能会在四到六个月内，而不是「是否」的
- b1 P3 d7 Z- s: J6 W7 i5 @3 Z问题。
8 s* |! Z* @& Z* i; ]: }; q4 c似乎有很大的自信判断市场即将迎来现货ETF。& |2 N8 z5 E* ]( N6 M3 q7 G& Y
4 y9 d# N g+ Q- T. `
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