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[lastpost] => 2806546 比特币和山寨币100倍加密货币回报的时代已经结束(转) 1771087807 垂钓园
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1. 宏观因素影响市场走势
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过去一周市场涨跌主要受宏观经济数据影响,包括美国未来的降息预期、上周的非农数据和失业率,以及本周即将公布的PPI与CPI数据。7 Z% h7 R/ C0 X4 l& ~1 j! Z7 b
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PPI助推反弹:昨晚公布的PPI数据低于市场预期,被认为是近期少见的利好消息。PPI同比上涨3.3%(预期3.5%),核心PPI同比上涨3.5%(预期3.8%),这让市场信心得到了一定恢复。
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CPI才是关键:今晚的CPI数据更为重要,市场预期CPI同比为2.9%(前值2.7%),核心CPI预期为3.3%。如果数据能保持在预期或持平的水平,大饼(比特币)可能重回10万美元上方,并延续市场的炒作行情。
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& s9 \1 ` E' H4 ^- {9 I! `2. 比特币市场现状与未来预期
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当前持仓成本:
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机构的平均持仓成本在8.1万美元左右;# Q5 `+ e- Q, X
9 ?7 i9 q/ D5 F! f3 M( g# C微策略因早期进场,平均成本约为6.2万美元;) i0 j" n" D1 W3 m' j; h9 [% c: z
7 W" i' B: V/ |: e* t# A% UETF持仓成本约在7万美元上下。
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比特币价值回归:6 ~* y7 }7 v* q# w
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市场大部分散户的低价筹码已经交割完毕,当前持币主力成本价在6-8万美元区间。4 t Z, R- v# s' F, F0 W- T- y
+ a3 F% s; |- W( ?9 l5 m6 K% e随着更多公司和国家效仿萨尔瓦多将比特币纳入战略储备,比特币的流通将越来越少,机构预测其价格有望达到15万甚至20万美元。$ W; x4 C8 k d# c @+ d
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加密资产的国家效应:萨尔瓦多因比特币政策而成为中美洲金融科技中心,吸引了像Tether这样的大型加密公司入驻。
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( g0 ]9 k% K" `1 r3. 市场热点与反弹情况
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ETH:
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虽然受到大量抛售的质疑,但以太坊价格总体稳定,汇率回升至0.033。
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: g7 k5 X& A2 u6 V2 m机构普遍认为以太坊本轮高点或达到1万美元。. U5 H2 o" S' o o8 `, }9 O. t
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3 l/ i4 _2 t' i! @, o! I4 y/ l尽管ETF持续外流且贝莱德带头抛售,比特币依然维持强势。
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% |6 r1 L1 ?! X1 f$ D o1 G如果今晚CPI数据利好,突破10万美元可能性极大。
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% {: ^ _. y) a3 R- \SOL与XRP:
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SOL走势强劲,被认为是AI生态的主导者。摩根大通预计SOL与XRP的ETF即将推出,或吸引150亿美元资金入场。
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XRP走势超强,多次占据韩所榜首,有市场声音预测其价格达到10美元、市值超越以太坊。
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其他热点项目:
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涉及ETF或政策的项目如$hbar、$algo、$ada等走势同样强劲。
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1 j* ?3 E: X4 w& K山寨市场近期普遍上涨,市场预计Q1可能迎来牛市爆发。3 _' C' \% z$ D; y
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4. AI赛道与新兴项目) C+ g4 [( p. H) `8 M' z
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AI领域表现突出,板块总市值达160亿美元,近期涨幅明显。+ |" M s/ r" I- [/ \
# ~, H# M2 J2 Z3 n; A2 v) e蓝筹项目:如$ai16z、$virtual和$aixbt等市值迅速攀升,部分实现翻倍增长。6 c/ i9 H+ P3 E- p
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新兴项目:正经团队推出的AI项目表现稳健,例如$mates和$sora已获得市场认可。
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市场展望
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随着宏观经济环境和政策明朗,加密市场有望迎来更多利好。山寨牛市或在第一季度爆发,AI、主流币、以及新兴应用赛道将继续成为市场焦点。# |3 J$ ]6 K4 f8 d9 M4 m& l9 r
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