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1. 宏观因素影响市场走势
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4 X% C7 Y/ f0 H& t( c) C1 S过去一周市场涨跌主要受宏观经济数据影响,包括美国未来的降息预期、上周的非农数据和失业率,以及本周即将公布的PPI与CPI数据。
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* G, [2 b2 [3 O3 a. @$ ]PPI助推反弹:昨晚公布的PPI数据低于市场预期,被认为是近期少见的利好消息。PPI同比上涨3.3%(预期3.5%),核心PPI同比上涨3.5%(预期3.8%),这让市场信心得到了一定恢复。! h, J( b2 [5 z% a
2 t* t9 h! W- t) uCPI才是关键:今晚的CPI数据更为重要,市场预期CPI同比为2.9%(前值2.7%),核心CPI预期为3.3%。如果数据能保持在预期或持平的水平,大饼(比特币)可能重回10万美元上方,并延续市场的炒作行情。2 q2 }" k6 n T; J: T. B& j
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2. 比特币市场现状与未来预期
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当前持仓成本:- w; ~& c# j( X/ z$ R' [3 ^
1 Q% _% B+ w5 d7 A机构的平均持仓成本在8.1万美元左右;6 |4 S! M1 h: q; _
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微策略因早期进场,平均成本约为6.2万美元; L9 F" v9 G; _4 y% r ^2 d
+ K8 _7 c9 U; METF持仓成本约在7万美元上下。
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3 W6 J0 ^* K7 Y4 ]5 k4 F3 q比特币价值回归:' c+ ]- |; S/ W; [; \
* G- g4 V- C# c& o% A% p7 ?" a& |市场大部分散户的低价筹码已经交割完毕,当前持币主力成本价在6-8万美元区间。2 d0 v% l0 D6 U3 Y- c
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随着更多公司和国家效仿萨尔瓦多将比特币纳入战略储备,比特币的流通将越来越少,机构预测其价格有望达到15万甚至20万美元。
3 w. J0 g" j* V9 R$ ?" Q5 d A' P1 l
加密资产的国家效应:萨尔瓦多因比特币政策而成为中美洲金融科技中心,吸引了像Tether这样的大型加密公司入驻。5 z7 o0 x# C: f( t
: c5 i# v _; }& o; s" [" j0 S: o4 d3. 市场热点与反弹情况
* B4 H1 i0 P3 C* V0 g) p& I
/ O( i, s& [' G5 NETH:! |6 k* U; Z8 F% ]
& u, f! j3 }- `. a1 t5 h虽然受到大量抛售的质疑,但以太坊价格总体稳定,汇率回升至0.033。
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+ ]5 z+ i1 [' a) E9 o6 P机构普遍认为以太坊本轮高点或达到1万美元。- g; G& A8 Z2 Y' v3 X9 N
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BTC:
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A- g7 O/ G/ U( _/ z. e尽管ETF持续外流且贝莱德带头抛售,比特币依然维持强势。
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# ?- U% k1 ~4 u5 d如果今晚CPI数据利好,突破10万美元可能性极大。
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SOL与XRP:5 V9 v" H" s. E( I( Q
8 p8 y8 i3 D( u, ~SOL走势强劲,被认为是AI生态的主导者。摩根大通预计SOL与XRP的ETF即将推出,或吸引150亿美元资金入场。( H2 C9 ~2 Z0 { O- U9 K( o* W
# X" F4 H$ j. ^XRP走势超强,多次占据韩所榜首,有市场声音预测其价格达到10美元、市值超越以太坊。
2 C0 U2 I+ K- e
& u. T$ m% k" @9 l! y% x其他热点项目:
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, s" ^! O2 B }% ^( M涉及ETF或政策的项目如$hbar、$algo、$ada等走势同样强劲。
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" p( t6 e' `" ~6 p山寨市场近期普遍上涨,市场预计Q1可能迎来牛市爆发。
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4. AI赛道与新兴项目
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& ^' d1 m \2 _9 l2 VAI领域表现突出,板块总市值达160亿美元,近期涨幅明显。3 S! V; X9 m; F
' i L0 N+ F& M蓝筹项目:如$ai16z、$virtual和$aixbt等市值迅速攀升,部分实现翻倍增长。% Z8 t$ f2 R0 G7 c* [; D; Z
1 o% M2 B6 w- d5 w4 c# B* \* `新兴项目:正经团队推出的AI项目表现稳健,例如$mates和$sora已获得市场认可。, F6 S$ u8 Q+ z
. r' U; }: l2 z5 L4 q" J, c- A7 c4 k市场展望
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& A |, j3 E2 X/ K" R随着宏观经济环境和政策明朗,加密市场有望迎来更多利好。山寨牛市或在第一季度爆发,AI、主流币、以及新兴应用赛道将继续成为市场焦点。6 f) @3 g/ y3 I5 f
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当前离线
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当前离线
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当前离线
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当前离线
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