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[lastpost] => 2750705 比特币成“救国神器”?英财政部想靠72亿美元加密资产填财政缺口 1753374021 天策-瑶娥
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[虚拟币交流]
比特币与 3 万亿美元美国债务——现在是购买 BTC 的时候了吗?(转)
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雷·达里奥 (Ray Dalio) 警告称,美国债务可能会使与美元挂钩的财富贬值。% m7 C9 F2 R6 B0 M4 `4 `+ K/ f0 Y
加密货币领导者将财政混乱视为 BTC 的看涨催化剂。' R2 \; t6 m7 B# V* R7 ~2 o# X
比特币[BTC]随着 7 月 3 日税收和支出法案通过后美国债务问题成为头条新闻,加密货币推特上出现了大量看涨言论。1 m7 s/ {+ v& S- p
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根据 估计,预计该法案将在未来10年内增加3万多亿美元。4 }8 X, t- P# e) V) f( `7 n
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但是,对冲基金桥水基金创始人雷·达利奥著名的 如果该法案按原样实施,债务可能会失控。- A& }. u a9 V) e
) Z, u9 y9 o e4 V# {他警告说,未来10年内,普通美国家庭的债务负担可能变得难以承受。* S3 x- y" e' `! ?; r) y9 P# j! R
4 ?. @" y0 ]7 ^( X& o可能的后果是什么?增税、削减ZF支出或增加印钞。这可能会削弱美元的价值,并损害那些依赖美元来保住财富的人。
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2 T( _9 p& ?4 i1 u; `0 `他表示,/ X4 j3 e- G+ }# X* b( B n' Y( q
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“这种印钞和贬值行为对于那些将债券作为财富储备的人来说并不好,而对债券和美国信贷市场不利的事情对每个人来说都是不利的。”
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$ F2 v8 g5 b' G9 Q1 `8 _! gBTC 的完美风暴?
2 ?8 x6 Y5 k+ m0 ^( R加密货币领袖声称,这种可能的财政混乱和后果正是比特币存在的原因。
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作为一种固定供应的数字资产,与美元等传统货币相比,它成为一种相对较好的价值储存手段。7 i) R2 i: A8 r' p) b% s
( q7 Q, r' H" |2 [; L这些货币供应量无限,由各国央行随意印制。简而言之,BTC、黄金和其他稀缺商品的需求量将会很大。
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Bitwise 首席信息官 Matt Hougan 对 Dalio 的警告作出回应 敦促用户“购买比特币”。3 h! T9 Z6 ^1 O! w3 z3 Y# C
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Real Vision 的 Raoul Pal 也赞同 Hougan 的观点,添加在这种贬值情况下,只有技术和加密货币才是更好的对冲工具。
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9 z4 v; `" x2 I0 T“在长期牛市中,贬值对冲只有两种表现显著优异:科技和加密货币。”1 D2 {% e: V) Q
: L, W; M8 e2 J) ~1 S尽管达利欧公开表示承认与拥有一些 BTC 相比,他更倾向于黄金。
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* u: l. ~ s( w. D) a; e他表示,追踪黄金价格走势更容易,尤其是在冲突期间。但他发现追踪比特币价格走势却很难,因此得出结论,比特币仍然是一种投机行为。
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p5 H5 b' \& k, W, | _% U/ }! d然而,对贝莱德的拉里·芬克来说,BTC 是数字黄金。事实上,他警告今年 4 月,如果财政债务得不到管理,人民币很容易取代美元成为世界储备货币。
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即便如此,财政部长斯科特·贝森特淡化与支出法案相关的债务问题。4 G: ~0 k9 I7 g5 A S% s
- u! [' I" R g6 Y- ~“我们的 GDP 增长速度快于债务增长速度,这种趋势将持续到总统剩余的任期。”
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* R- M q Q* h. g# ~4 S3 U与此同时,Coinbase 分析师警告“大美丽法案”将债务上限提高了 5 万亿美元。% k& `4 {6 o( J9 m- a* `: t
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结果,美国财政部可能会补充(从市场借钱)其主要现金账户或TGA(国库普通账户),并挤压流动性,拖累包括BTC在内的风险资产。- _+ a# O. z& m
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“TGA 的补充可能会在短期内消耗大盘的流动性,对所有风险资产构成明显的下行风险。”- I& F" |+ B) d- F
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