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[lastpost] => 2767468 比特币变“无聊”?从过山车到马拉松,它正在换一种方式火热 1758819797 天策-瑶娥
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周一,加密货币市场遭遇大规模清算,超过15亿美元的多头头寸被强制平仓,引发了近一个月来最严重的闪崩行情。根据Coinglass的数据,在过去24小时内,超过40.7万名交易员被强制平仓,看涨押注的平仓总额一度超过15亿美元。以太坊受创最重,价格一度暴跌9%至4075美元,近5亿美元的杠杆多头头寸被抹去。比特币也未能幸免,下跌近3%至111998美元。美股盘前基准股指下挫,科技股普跌。) n2 A. c6 i2 C# r, \
市场分析师认为,2 d' h% F: n6 F! a! T
此次暴跌主要由过度杠杆和山寨币涨势过热引发的连强制平仓所致。清算和追加保证金通知触发自动卖单,加速了比特币的下跌。
9 R/ |- S4 t7 H0 V6 _' O- S% a( l这种连锁反应导致短时间内巨额平仓,使整个数字资产总市值跌破4万亿美元大关。
~2 M7 Y( H( N% z1 d) mXBTO Trading的高级交易员George Mandres表示:
/ D. {7 C6 P6 m2 a# ?6 ~7 A“市场似乎需要喘息之机,一些参与者担心‘数字资产财库交易’(DAT-trade)正在失去动力,且未来没有更多有意义的资金流入。”5 r, D) q: X N# o1 c
下跌引发连锁反应1 Q w$ o: \+ v* ?7 E. W
周末开始的下跌,在周一加速演变为全面平仓。
0 j0 T* b# ?& ~% w. a$ ?根据CoinGlass数据,
- R6 o, b0 j& U9 |+ Z过去24小时内平仓金额达到4.42亿美元,为8月29日以来的最高水平。清算事件一度在一小时内达到10亿美元的峰值。: j0 _- X- B( J# [4 ~
比特币跌破11.43万美元关键支撑位后,触发了大量多头头寸的强制平仓。在短短四分钟内4 }& T2 h2 \& ]$ l4 H$ @
,比特币价格跌破11.2万美元,随后小幅反弹至11.3万美元附近。
+ {( i( o& r: u9 m8 F% A0 C6 u! ]除了主流代币外,此次清算还影响了价值1.097亿美元的小型资产。近期表现强劲的ASTER、WLFI、PUMP等代币也遭遇显著清算。连BNB也在从900美元涨至近1100美元后出现有限的多头平仓。
, A+ J3 F% O. ?) g5 G: ~8 S历史上,多头头寸一直是清算损失的主要承担者。上一次大规模平仓潮发生在2025年2月,当时24小时内平仓金额达22亿美元,约70万名交易者失去头寸。) J% _+ T" Z3 q* \
技术指标显示超卖状态,“山寨币季节”戛然而止1 G- v2 }/ p2 H& M6 F
在这场抛售中,以太坊和各类山寨币的跌幅远超比特币。周一,当比特币兑美元汇率下跌约2.5%时,, {, ], @( a# }$ l- `& G1 {$ a# _. {
以太坊的跌幅超过6%。以太坊相对于比特币的汇率(ETH/BTC)也突然跌至0.037,创下一个月来的新低。
7 E. @9 G4 E8 J) {+ o9 f |以太坊价格一度回落至4200美元区间,虽然相较于年初仍有26%的涨幅,但已从8月下旬创下的4900美元以上的历史高点大幅回调。同时,以太坊的未平仓合约总额从近期的约300亿美元回落至270亿美元,反映出衍生品市场热度的降温。$ r F9 S# d1 O+ E+ L( Z
清算和追加保证金通知触发更多自动卖单,加速了比特币的下跌。这种强制平仓形成的连锁反应是造成短时间内巨额平仓的主要原因。
9 ]- V- g' w; N+ v相对强弱指数在大幅下跌期间进入超卖区域,一度跌破20,
3 |* K( k2 w6 } z1 \2 _9 c凸显了交易者行动的速度和严重程度。如此深度的超卖状态通常伴随清算驱动的崩盘,价格走势更多受强制平仓而非有机卖出驱动。! [( z' A* p" P2 E Z% s! j
分析认为,最近几周并非真正的“山寨币季节”,而更像是一场由少数代币(如BNB)领涨的“短暂的半山寨币季节”。当这些领涨代币积累的过度热情消散时,便引发了整个市场的连锁下跌。目前,比特币的市场主导地位已回升至56.2%,而以太坊的主导地位则下滑至12.8%。
2 j S5 [* [- p* S! i( Q( u狂热情绪降温,市场寻求喘息之机
I. `( P% n* e& s6 W市场分析人士指出,3 e. w/ U3 `% `( h% h+ o$ H4 h
此次大规模平仓主要由利率上升预期引发。9 k: N. s3 I% e5 q- {
紧缩货币政策通常对加密货币等另类资产构成压力,当债券和储蓄等安全资产收益率上升时,加密货币对投资者的吸引力下降。
+ I: |4 @$ @( q5 U此次闪崩普遍被视为对前几周市场狂热情绪的修正。8月份,在所谓“数字资产财库公司”(即公开宣布将加密货币作为财库储备资产的公司)需求的推动下,比特币和以太坊双双创下历史新高。
) C$ c Z/ B- n& H* E! X市场分析人士指出,当前的回调在加密市场的正常波动范围内。从历史上看,“山寨币季节”通常较为短暂,往往只持续数周。从积极的方面看,DeFi领域的借贷协议并未受到大规模清算的威胁,因为大多数贷款头寸保持保守,大规模平仓水平远低于当前价格。
# u$ W- _& j! d3 Y6 C" G( T& D( L本文来自华尔街见闻,欢迎下载APP查看更多7 F& M: j( `4 t
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