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[lastpost] => 2793234 2026 年宏观经济前景为何可能引发类似 2020 年的比特币上涨行情（转） 1767116411 叫我十三
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当前离线
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- V6 D7 Z7 `5 w6 [3 U 调整来临？今日，比特币突然跳水，此前大涨的黄金与日本股市也有所回落。" }$ c! `8 W! F, Z" s% _+ h( _
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截至发稿， 比特币跌幅超0.8%，跌破124000美元。以太坊、雪崩币等加密货币也纷纷走低。9 B9 n4 F& j5 n$ |7 O0 s
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7 Q# W6 Y) @6 } Coinglass网站数据显示，过去24小时内，虚拟货币共有超16万人爆仓。
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此前比特币已连续上涨，昨日，比特币一度冲高至126199美元左右，事实上，随着美联储降息周期开启，美元持续走弱，黄金、比特币等资产纷纷被抢购。今日，纽约期金一度涨至4000美元，不过，当前已有所回落。# M$ f+ i' O8 G6 T, X
: S# T; K5 l4 K 此外，美国ZF“关门”持续，日本与法国政坛的变动也导致避险资产更受青睐。
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! g2 o8 z/ F, a9 w 不过，对于黄金等资产的暴涨，美国银行认为技术性调整或将来临。! K: Z/ [" @/ }8 o6 s
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美国银行分析师Paul Ciana在一份研究报告中表示，从技术分析来看，随着金价逼近每盎司4000美元关口，其上涨趋势已显现“动能耗尽”的迹象。这位首席技术策略师指出，若此趋势延续，金价可能在第四季度进入盘整或回调阶段。
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5 V" P# v3 e& V* Y0 M% A Ciana称：“从趋势跟踪与风险管理角度出发，目前更适合上调止损位、进行对冲操作，或减少部分多头持仓。”他进一步补充，黄金涨势可能“动能耗尽”的信号包括：当前金价较其200日简单移动平均线高出约21%——而金价在该均线
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+ a- M. l% K8 B$ d以上21%的位置往往容易出现峰值，若涨幅接近25%，峰值出现的概率会更高。
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在今日股市方面，虽然亚太主要股指收盘多数上涨。但日经225指数尾盘回落仅涨0.01%报47950.88点，此前一度涨破48500点。
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权重股方面，丰田汽车涨1.65%，KDDI电信涨1.44%，软银集团涨1.11%；日本电气跌2.93%，TOKYO ELECTRON跌1.57%，迅销跌1.28%。澳洲标普200指数跌0.21%报8956.80点。新西兰标普50指数涨0.31%报13531.290点。
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市场情绪转凉一瞬间，该来的回调还是来了。
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